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Operation Disclosure: GCR/RV Intel Alert for February 22, 2019

RV/INTELLIGENCE ALERT - February 22, 2019 (Disclaimer: The following is an overview of the current situation based on intelligence leak...

Wednesday, July 4, 2018

Wed. PM KTFA News Articles 7-4-18


Samson » July 4th, 2018

Việt Nam enjoys trade surplus of $42.71 billion in H1

3rd July, 2018

Việt Nam posted a trade surplus of US$2.71 billion in the first half of the year, compared with a deficit of $3.5 billion in the same period last year, according to the General Statistics Office (GSO).

Nguyễn Bích Lâm, GSO director general told the press last week that total export turnover was $113.9 billion, a 16 per cent year-on-year rise.

Exports of the domestic sector in the period reached $33 billion, increasing 20 per cent from the corresponding period last year while those of the foreign direct investment (FDI) sector were up 14.5 per cent to $80.8 billion.

The general director said key export products saw high growth. Notably, there were 20 items with export turnover of more than $1 billion, accounting for 85.6 per cent of the country’s total export turnover.

Major products posting encouraging earnings included phones and spare parts ($22.5 billion, up 15.4 per cent), electronics and computers ($13.5 billion, up 15.7 per cent), garment and textile ($13.4 billion, up 13.8 per cent), machines and equipment ($7.8 billion, up 30.6 per cent) and shoes ($7.8 billion, up 10.6 per cent).

In terms of imports, the country spent $111.2 billion in the first six months of the year, up 10 per cent compared with the same period last year.

Imports were mainly commodities serving products for export, including machines and equipment with $45 billion, up 0.7 per cent and material and fuel $56.9 billion, up 19.4 per cent.

Việt Nam maintained its trade surplus with the US, EU and Japan with relatively high growth in two-way trade, Lâm added.

Bilateral trade value between Việt Nam and the US in the January-June period reached $27.1 billion, a 10.6 per cent year-on-year increase. Of which, Việt Nam’s export turnover to the US was $21.5 billion, increasing 9.2 per cent from the same period last year while import turnover rose by 16.3 per cent to $5.6 billion.

Two-way trade between Việt Nam and the EU was $26.8 billion. Việt Nam’s export turnover to the market was $20.5 billion and import turnover was $6.4 billion.

The country’s export turnover to Japan hiked 12.5 per cent to $9 billion and import value from the market was $8.8 billion, bringing total bilateral trade value of $17.9 billion in the first half of the year.

Phạm Quỳnh Lợi, GSO deputy director of the Trade and Services Statistics Department, said the domestic economic sector saw trade deficit of $12.94 billion while the FDI sector posted a trade surplus of $15.65 billion in the first half of the year.

Việt Nam maintained a trade deficit with China in January-June, with import turnover of $14.5 billion, increasing 4 per cent from the same period last year. LINK

Vietnam : Central bank lowers dollar rate to keep exchange rate steady

4th July, 2018

The State Bank of Việt Nam (SBV) has stepped in to steady the dollar-đồng exchange rate by selling the greenback on Tuesday at 1 per cent lower than the previous day’s rate.

Commercial banks were able to buy from the central bank’s Operation Centre at VNĐ23,050.

The SBV also cut the daily reference exchange rate by VNĐ5 to VNĐ22,630 to the dollar. With the current trading band of 3 per cent, the ceiling rate for banks during the day was VNĐ23,309 and the floor rate was VNĐ21,951.

Following the move, Vietcombank reduced both buying and selling rates by VNĐ5 to VNĐ23,000 and VNĐ23,070, but other lenders continued to hike their rates.

BIDV increased both by VNĐ20 to VNĐ23,010 and VNĐ23,080.

Techcombank’s buying rate was VNĐ22,980, up VNĐ50 from the previous day, and selling rate was VNĐ23,080.

Earlier SBV Governor Lê Minh Hưng had told an online conference between the Government and localities that the central bank was willing to intervene in the foreign exchange market if supply or demand problems arose.

The dollar has appreciated significantly against the đồng recently.

According to Nguyễn Đức Độ, deputy head of the Economics and Finance Institute, besides the appreciation of the dollar following the US Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate hike and the accelerating US-China trade war risk, there is also a psychological factor at play following rumours that the rate would remain upward bound.

But he expects the SBV to take strong measures to prevent the dollar from strengthening to much against the đồng to prevent a repeat of the dollar hoarding a few years ago.

Besides, it also needs to keep the exchange rate steady to enable the Government to achieve its goal of keeping inflation below 4 per cent this year, he added. LINK

Vietnam : No crisis next year, minister

4th July, 2018

Việt Nam’s economy is not likely to experience an economic crisis next year, according to Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyễn Chí Dũng, though it has suffered such crises in 1979, 1989, 1999 and 2009, following consistent 10-year cycles.

Dũng spoke at the national governmental e-meeting reviewing Việt Nam’s socio-economic development in the first half of 2018 on Monday.

The risk of an economic crisis in 2019 has been discussed in the media in recent days, as commentators wonder whether the booming is due for a bust.

According to the Government official, the previous explosions had their origins in the financial and real estate markets, and Việt Nam’s financial state of affairs is now in good shape with the flexible management of the central bank, sound liquidity at commercial banks and stable interest rates.

As for the securities market, Dũng said that the stock market has slowed down after a growth spurt, while the housing market has cooled down after the Government took drastic measures to reign in land speculation fever in hot markets, especially at the sites expected to become special economic zones.

“This suggests that the economic crisis is unlikely to occur according to the decade cycle,” Dũng said.

However, he added that State management authorities needed to keep a close watch on macroeconomic movements to take quick action in response to market changes.

He also noted the tendency for Việt Nam’s growth to slow down towards the end of the year.

Việt Nam’s gross domestic product (GDP) dropped from 7.45 per cent in the first quarter of 2018 to 6.79 per cent in the second quarter. The country’s first-half growth averaged 7.08 per cent, which is rather high, but to secure the annual target of 6.7 per cent, Dũng said more efforts are necessary for the latter half of the year.

He said the growth rate should reach 6.53 per cent in the third quarter and 6.36 per cent in the fourth quarter to guarantee the Government’s annual growth target.

Concerning inflation, the minister said that the consumer price index (CPI) continuously increased in May (0.55 per cent) and June (0.61 per cent) which raised concerns about the feasibility of keeping the inflation rate below 4 per cent by year-end.

Therefore, he emphasized the need to implement price stabilisation and economic adjustment measures, especially when there are typically two strong price increases at the start of the new school year (in September) and in the last month of the year.

In addition, there is the possibility that a trade war will break out, which could bring both challenges and opportunities for Việt Nam, Dũng said.

Việt Nam is not targeted in this war, so the country can take advantage of the opportunity to increase imports and exports, according to Dũng. However, global instability will create competition between economies, which will have a significant impact on developing countries, including Việt Nam.

"So we need to keep a close watch on the opportunities and challenges of the war," the minister said. LINK

Exchange rate cools down in some banks

4th July, 2018

The US$/VNĐ exchange rate yesterday cooled down in some large commercial banks after the State Bank of Việt Nam (SBV) said it will intervene to stabilise the market if necessary, contributing to keeping the macro-economy steady.

SBV yesterday kept its daily reference exchange rate unchanged from the previous day at VNĐ22,635 per US dollar. With the current trading band of +/- 3 per cent, the ceiling rate applied to commercial banks during the day was VNĐ23,314 and the floor rate VNĐ21,956 per dollar.

Vietcombank yesterday listed the dollar at VNĐ23,000 for buying and VNĐ23,070 for selling, both down VNĐ5 against the previous day.

The buying and selling rates at BIDV were also adjusted down by VNĐ10 to VNĐ23,010 and VNĐ23,080, respectively.

The US dollar has appreciated significantly against the Vietnamese đồng recently.

According to Phạm Thanh Hà, head of the SBV’s Monetary Policy Department, the recent appreciation of the dollar against the đồng was due to inside and outside impacts such as poor sessions on the domestic stock market and the dollar rising globally.

Commenting on the exchange rate and foreign currency market so far this year, Hà said both were stable in the first five months thanks to a trade surplus, high disbursement of foreign direct investment, big deals with high foreign indirect investment and the stable USD Index.

Hà said the SBV would continue to monitor domestic and world markets with an eye on the impacts of rising US exchange rates, US-China relations, the European Central Bank and Japan’s central bank, as well as domestic foreign currency supply.

“If necessary, the SBV will sell foreign currency at a lower price to stabilise the market, contributing to keeping the macro-economy steady,” stated Hà.

Earlier, SBV Governor Lê Minh Hưng said at an online conference between the Government and localities held in Hà Nội on Monday that SBV’s net purchase of foreign currencies exceeded US$11 billion in the first half of 2018, increasing the nation’s foreign exchange reserves to approximately $63.5 billion.

Hưng said the SBV had carried out a flexible currency policy to stabilise the average interest rate. The average lending interest rate was reduced by 0.5 percentage points over the January-June period.

Meanwhile, credit grew approximately 6.9 per cent from 2017, with its structure occupied mainly by those lent to the processing-manufacturing sector (16.3 per cent) and rural agriculture (21 per cent), as well as small-and medium-sized businesses (nearly 7.1 per cent).

Hưng stressed that the credit structure had been shifting towards supporting the development of special production areas like exports, rural farming and the processing-manufacturing industry.

He added that over the past six months, the SBV had also sped up the handling of bad debt.
He said a recent increase in the foreign exchange rate was predictable as the US Federal Reserve had raised the interest rates and the dollar had appreciated on the international market.

Hưng stated that the SBV was willing to intervene in the local foreign exchange market if supply or demand problems arose. LINK

Source: Dinar Recaps



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