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Operation Disclosure: GCR/RV Intel Alert for November 17, 2018

RV/INTELLIGENCE ALERT - November 17, 2018 (Disclaimer: The following is an overview of the current situation based on intelligence leak...

Sunday, June 24, 2018

Sun. PM KTFA News Articles 6-24-18

KTFA

Don961 » June 24th, 2018

Iran rial plunges to new lows as US sanctions loom


June 24 2018 04:39 PM

The Iranian rial plunged to a record low against the US dollar on the unofficial market on Sunday, continuing its slide amid fears of returning US sanctions after President Donald Trump in May withdrew from a deal on Tehran’s nuclear program.

The dollar was being offered for as much as 87,000 rials, compared to around 75,500 on Thursday, the last trading day before Iran’s weekend, according to foreign exchange website Bonbast.com, which tracks the unofficial market.

Iran’s semi-official news agency ISNA said the dollar had climbed to 87,000 rials on Sunday from about 74,000 before the weekend on the black market, and several Iranian websites carried similar reports.

The currency has been sliding for months because of a weak economy, financial difficulties at local banks and heavy demand for dollars among Iranians who fear the pullout by Washington from the nuclear deal and renewed U.S. sanctions against Tehran could shrink the country’s exports of oil and other goods.

Some of the sanctions take effect after a 90-day “wind-down” period ending on Aug. 6, and the rest, most notably on the petroleum sector, after a 180-day “wind-down period” ending on Nov. 4.

The rial has weakened from around 65,000 rials just before Trump’s announcement of the U.S. withdrawal in early May, and from 42,890 at the end of last year - a freefall that threatens to boost inflation, hurt living standards and reduce the ability of Iranians to travel abroad.

In an effort to halt the slide, Iranian authorities announced in April they were unifying the dollar’s official and black market exchange rates at a single level of 42,000, and banning any trade at other rates under the threat of arrest.

But this step has failed to stamp out the unofficial market because authorities have been supplying much less hard currency through official channels than consumers are demanding. Free market trade simply went underground, dealers said. link

Samson » June 24th, 2018

A resounding victory and a road map to push the Iraqi economy forward


24th June, 2018

After the declaration of absolute victory over the preacher at the end of 2017, the announcement of the Iraqi Prime Minister for the liberation of all Iraqi territory after the occupation of full or partial to many of the Iraqi provinces, including Nineveh and Salahuddin in the north and parts of Diyala in the east and Anbar in the West - nearly 40 % Of the country's territory, which produced 80,000 barrels of crude oil in 2014, represented a historic milestone for the Iraqi people

At the same time, the Iraqi economy has been in a long period of crisis, and suffers from real structural imbalances, whether in the real or financial sectors. This was caused by the absence of economic policy and the lack of long-term relevance. Which is contrary to the rules of modern economic construction, as well as depletion of the country's resources in the wars of liberation and the most recent declaration of victory over a supporter

Despite the preoccupation of the Iraqi government to liberate its territory, it has tended as it tries to lift the economy from its problems in the provision of basic services to citizens and fill the salaries of employees is the deficit and the investment gap, which requires filling from other sources, both domestic investment (private sector) or foreign investment, This depends on creating an enabling investment environment that will convince investors to come to the Iraqi arena or else the difficulties and problems will continue

​New political orientations

In August 2015, Iraqi Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi introduced reforms to reduce the size of the government and address corruption, accompanied by local economic reforms based on reducing unnecessary public expenditures and increasing the efficiency of collecting public revenues, including customs duties and taxes. Non-oil revenues, which are poured into the public budget alongside oil

The Iraqi government leaders reform program to simplify procedures to help in investment and remove obstacles to investors and businessmen and Iraqis and foreigners and lift obstacles to projects, especially through the start of commercial activity, which became easier in Iraq by combining multiple registration procedures and shorten the time required to register companies. Entrepreneurs are no longer required to register their companies independently with the General Authority for Taxes. In addition, the time required for registration of companies has been reduced, owing to the increased resources available in the registration services and the improvement of the electronic registration system

A new dawn of economic reform is taking place in Iraq

The effects of the reform initiative have emerged across many sectors, with the flow of non-oil revenue increasing now. A total of 2,219 and 2323 new private sector companies were registered in 2016 and 2017 respectively. The Iraqi Stock Exchange witnessed an increase in trading volume from KD 516 billion to KD 900 in the same period

The World Bank also confirmed that, during 2016-2017, Iraq had been able to implement fundamental changes in the domestic regulatory framework in two main areas: starting business and obtaining credit

Iraq has also strengthened its credit information infrastructure by launching a credit bureau operated by the Central Bank of Iraq, which includes a five-year history of 234,967 individuals and 4,877 commercial loans as of January 1, 2017

"The Iraqi government has embarked on a fundamental reform agenda based on the General Government Framework Program (2014-2018), which places priority on institutional economic reforms and the development of the private sector , " said Saroj Kumar Jha, regional director for the Middle East division at the World Bank

The Government of Iraq also succeeded in strengthening the investment mechanism in the country and put it through the ratification of the following economic and investment agreements:

In 2015, Iraq joined the International Convention on the Settlement of Investment Disputes between States and Citizens of Other States (the International Center for the Settlement of Foreign Trade), one of the main instruments of international law that protects and encourages foreign investment

In 2017, Iraq ratified the United Nations Convention on Transparency in Investor-State Arbitration (Mauritius Convention on Transparency)

In 2018, Iraq ratified the United Nations Convention on the Recognition and Enforcement of Foreign Arbitral Awards

A bright future and a productive economy

The conference was held in Kuwait with the participation of 76 countries, 107 international and regional organizations, 51 development funds, NGOs and 1,850 private sector representatives to enhance confidence between Iraq and the international community. Victorious of war

In addition to the achievements of the Kuwait International Conference held in Baghdad, "The Forum of Investment Opportunities and Reconstruction of Iraq" in April 2018, which adopted new economic trends such as public-private partnership, which will provide promising opportunities within the framework of the program of economic reform and the alignment of the countries of the world and international organizations, But stressed the sincere desire and determination of dozens of Iraqi and foreign companies, to enter the fields of investment in the provinces of all countries, which signed 9 investment licenses and memorandums of understanding:

​Rehabilitation and development of central markets (Mustansiriya market, the market of justice and work, Salihia and people) worth 205 million dollars, the company Daeco British
The Muftiyah project in Basra (residential, entertainment and commercial) worth $ 234 million, the British company Daeco

The caustic soda complex and the $ 80 million al-Muthanna table salt production plant. Al Ghaith UAE Company

The signing of 3 memorandums of understanding with Kuwaiti investor Jawad Bukhmsen to establish 3 hotels and commercial centers in Kadhimiya, Karbala and Samarra
5 star hotel and shopping center in Baghdad

E-government project via satellite

Construction of the industrial city in Baghdad

Expansion and development of Andalus Specialist Hospital in Baghdad

A branch of an international university specialized in Baghdad with an area of ​​25 acres - Al Hawadi Group UAE

All the above mentioned projects, initiatives and reforms are in line with the five-year plan 2018-2022 and address the problems and obstacles in the framework of the sustainable development journey in accordance with Iraq's vision for 2030 through the strategic objectives and principles adopted by it, including the establishment of good governance, economic, financial, monetary, And work on the recovery of the provinces affected by the crisis of displacement and the loss of human security

In addition, providing an attractive environment for investment in all its forms will provide more than two million jobs. It is ultimately a plan that paves the way for building the future state by addressing the challenges and providing new opportunities for growth with continued international and regional support for Iraq LINK

For the first time .. Oil prices jump, ignoring the increase in production amid the role of Iraq

24th June, 2018

After many of the oil producers' meeting in Vienna, many questions dominated the minds of everyone, especially with regard to the logic of rising oil prices despite the approval of increased production

The start of the confusion over the size of the increase approved by the Organization, the joint statement issued after the meeting of the Organization and its allies on Saturday, did not address the figures, which opens the door wide to speculation

According to official sources, the increase from OPEC and its allies is estimated at only one million barrels, the share of the Organization of which 600 thousand barrels, which is modest and did not rise to the volume of growing demand under the US sanctions on Iran and the crises experienced by Venezuela, and this Explains the jump in prices that accompanied the announcement of these increases

According to the newspaper "Gulf", the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries "OPEC" in a statement that it will return to 100% commitment to the previously agreed production cuts, but did not provide specific figures

Saudi Arabia said the move would translate into a nominal productivity increase of about 1 million barrels a day or 1 percent of global supplies. Iraq said the real increase would be about 770,000 barrels per day because many countries that suffered a decline in production will struggle to reach full quotas

OPEC met with Russia and other allies on Saturday to clinch a new deal to increase oil production, a day after agreeing to increase the organization's own output in a decision to confuse the market over the amount of additional oil to be pumped

Trump intervened and asked US President Donald Trump about the size of the OPEC oil increase after the agreement. "I hope Opec will increase production significantly, we need to keep prices low," he wrote on Twitter after announcing the WTO decision

The United States, China and India have urged oil producers to increase supply to prevent an oil shortage that could undermine global economic growth
Increase quotas

and OPEC said in a statement that it will increase the supply by returning to a commitment to 100 percent production cuts agreed in advance rather than 145 percent , but did not give specific figures

Saudi Arabia said the move would translate into a nominal production increase of about 1 million bpd or 1 percent of the world supply of OPEC producers and non-members

Iraq said the real increase would amount to about 770,000 barrels per day because several countries are experiencing declines in production and will find it difficult to return to full quotas. Iran said the real increase was closer to 500,000 bpd

Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said he was happy with the decision, although he had called on Opec and non-members before to increase output by up to 1.5 million bpd. "At this point, the million is very reasonable," he told reporters after arriving in Vienna, home to the OPEC secretariat

Iran, OPEC's third largest producer, has demanded that the organization reject Trump's calls for increased oil supplies, saying it has contributed to recent price hikes by imposing sanctions on Iran and its OPEC member Venezuela

Trump imposed new sanctions on Tehran in May and market observers expect Iran's output to decline by one-third by the end of 2018. That means the country will benefit little from an agreement to increase OPEC output, unlike Saudi Arabia, the world's top exporter

Without setting targets for each country, the OPEC deal seems to give Saudi Arabia the opportunity to produce above its previous OPEC quota to fill the gap in countries such as Venezuela that can not pump enough to reach its official quota
What did Iran say?

But this is not the case, according to Iranian Oil Minister Begin Zanganeh, who said: "Every country that produced less (of its share) can produce more, and those who can not, will not."

"This means that Saudi Arabia can increase its production by less than 100,000 barrels per day ... Qatar can produce an additional 70,000 barrels per day," Zangneh Argus Media said

"But that does not mean Venezuela's production should be produced by another country, Venezuela will increase production when it can, and if it can not, others can not produce on its behalf."
Rebalancing

OPEC and its allies have been involved since last year in a deal to cut output by 1.8 million bpd. The measure helped rebalance the market in the last 18 months and raised oil to around $ 75 a barrel from $ 27 in 2016. Unexpected delays in Venezuela, Libya and Angola have practically reached supply cuts to about 2.8 million barrels per day in recent months

The Saudi Energy Minister warned that the world could face a supply shortfall of 1.8 million bpd in the second half of 2018

Prices jumped and oil prices rose by up to 5 percent as the WTI crude futures closed up $ 3.04, or 4.6 percent, to $ 68.58 a barrel, the biggest daily jump since November 2016. Brent crude futures rose $ 2.50 Or 3.4 percent to $ 75.55 a barrel LINK

Source: Dinar Recaps

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