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Monday, June 18, 2018

Simon Black: One Investment Strategy that Still Works

Notes From The Field

By Simon Black

June 18, 2018
Santiago, Chile

One Investment Strategy That Still Works With Rising Interest Rates

Last week, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points.

The market anticipated the move. But the Fed also signaled future rate increases because they’re concerned about inflation and an overheating economy.

And there are plenty of signs today to show the Fed’s worries are legitimate.

Unemployment is at the lowest point in decades.

Oil workers in the Permian Basin (a shale play in Texas) are getting 100% wage hikes due to labor shortages – truck drivers in the area can make $140,000 a year.

Demand for 18-wheelers and rail cars are soaring and there aren’t enough workers to move goods… again, that means higher pay, which will likely be passed on in the form of higher product prices.

Not to mention, fuel prices are soaring.

And this consumer-driven inflation is happening at the same time the US government has racked up record debt (that’s only headed higher).

The Treasury estimates it will borrow trillions of dollars more over the next few years. This flood of debt is happening as the biggest buyers of Treasurys are tightening – China, Japan and the Federal Reserve.

With more debt coming to the market and fewer buyers, that means higher interest rates.

And higher interest rates are typically bearish for asset prices.

Higher interest rates mean the real estate buyer can’t afford as much house (because their monthly payments will be higher).

And overly leveraged companies will have a harder time borrowing more cash to pay dividends and buy back shares (stocks also become less attractive when you can earn a decent rate of interest in your savings account).

Typically, I’d avoid most traditional securities in a rising-rate environment (that’s why I’ve been talking so much about raising cash recently).

But there is one area I think makes sense today – deep value investing.

Deep value investing is simple… it means buying $1 of assets for 50 cents.

And Tim Staermose, our Chief Investment Strategist, excels at this.

For example, in July 2017, he recommended a mining company called New Century Resources.

New Century owned a mine in Australia that contained as much as $5.4 billion worth of zinc.

But you could buy the entire company for only $111 million.

And, in addition to the zinc, New Century owned a 49% stake in 1.73 million acres of grazing land for cattle, a coal project in Alabama, $10.5 million in cash, A$23.1 million of guaranteed cash coming in the door from the mine’s previous owner and $8.3 million in a trust.

Again, you could buy the entire company for only $111 million – it was laughably undervalued.

In the case of New Century, they were far more things that could potentially go right – sending shares skyrocketing – than go wrong.

And shortly after Tim recommended shares, they took off. Today, 4th Pillar readers are sitting on over 100% gains.

​And New Century isn’t Tim’s only big winner. Since 2016, he’s closed out 22 winning positions out of 23 – a 96%-win rate.

The track record makes sense…

When you’re paying well below intrinsic value for high-quality assets, most of the risk has already been taken off the table. So there’s not much downside remaining.

Tim has been a value investor for decades. But he recently recommended one of the most attractive stocks he’s found in his career.

It’s a leading global brand that is either No. 1 or No. 2 in all of its product categories. It’s trading nearly 50% below its peak (while its business is growing) and it pays a nearly 5% dividend.

Tim says this would be the one stock he’d be happy to buy and hold for 10 years, regardless of what’s happening in the markets.

To your freedom, Simon Black, Founder, SovereignMan.com

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