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Friday, June 15, 2018

"See What Unfolds" - Fri. PM KTFA Thoughts/News


Don961 » June 15th, 2018

We will continue to peruse for articles as usual ... but please know for these next 5 days , many news sites will be either completely down or partially down for the celebration of Eid ... they will ramp up again on Wednesday ... so let's see what unfolds and keep on alert for significant progress in our investment ...

Samson » June 15th, 2018

European Central plans to end the bond purchase program

15th June, 2018

ECB kept interest rates unchanged as expected, and said it will reduce the huge program to buy bonds at the end of this year.

The bank said it would continue its program to buy 30 billion euros a month of bonds as of September as planned.

Starting in October, the monthly bond purchases will be reduced to 15 billion euros by the end of December 2018. After the program is over, assuming the data are confirmed for the board's medium-term inflation view.

At the same time, the central bank pledged to keep interest rates at their current low levels at least until next summer. LINK

The ECB decision shakes global markets today

15th June, 2018

The European Central Bank (ECB) released its monetary policy decision as the most important event by the end of the day, in a move that signals a continuation of the easing of monetary policy in general and the recovery of economic growth in the euro area

The ECB's decision to end the quantitative easing program, as well as hints about the region's interest rate, caused a sharp loss for the euro to fall below $ 1.16

The European Bank's move supports the general trend of moving away from monetary easing policies that have been followed for many years in the wake of the global financial crisis

On the other hand, emerging market currencies continue to suffer from the strength of the dollar and the decisions of the Fed yesterday, in addition to the sharp losses in the currency of Argentina

Decision of the European Central

The European Central Bank (ECB) announced today that it will continue to buy bonds of 30 billion euros until September, reducing their value to 15 billion dollars during the last three months of the year

The European Bank said next December will be the end date of the asset purchase program
The ECB also decided to fix interest rates on refinancing, lending and deposits at 0.00%, 0.25% and 0.40%, respectively

ECB President Mario Draghi said the decision to keep interest rates at their current levels would continue until the summer of 2018

The outlook of the new euro zone helped push the EUR down sharply, boosting green paper gains as the US dollar recorded its best daily performance since 2016

Business conditions

Although US President Donald Trump continued his path on imposing tariffs on US imports, his efforts in the nuclear disarmament process boosted his candidacy for the Nobel Peace Prize

The US president said he would face China very strongly in the coming weeks on trade issues, which would boost reports of China's tariffs on Friday

On the other hand, EU governments support the retaliation against the US decision by imposing tariffs on US products, according to press reports

Canada's foreign minister also said her country was serious about imposing retaliatory tariffs against US goods

Global Stock Exchange

European bourses reacted positively to the central bank's monetary policy decision, while technology sector gains pushed the Nasdaq index to a record high

At the end of Thursday's session, Wall Street rallied to record a new record high with technology gains, despite the Dow's failure to catch up with the greenback

During the session, US company Netflix rose to its highest level, surpassing 100% gains since the beginning of the year

In the European market, European equity indexes rose at the end of trading following the central bank's decision to set a date for the end of the monetary policy program

Japan's stock indexes fell after the Fed's decision amid trade concerns

Economic indicators

Today saw the release of a number of important economic data in the US as well as indications that China's economy has lost momentum this year as the royal wedding has had positive effects on UK retail sales

In the United States, import prices in May rose year-on-year at their fastest pace since February 2017, while jobless claims fell in contrast to estimates

While US retail sales exceeded expectations in May

In Europe's second largest economy, retail sales in May rose more than expected due to good weather and a royal wedding

While China's economy faces a tough challenge, with economic data on industrial production, fixed income investment and retail sales below expectations

Emerging market losses

The decision to raise the US interest rate contributed to further suffering within emerging currency markets, all of them in the red range with sharp losses in the Argentine currency
The Federal Reserve decided to raise the interest rate for the second time this year to between 1.75% and 2% and increased the rate of increase in 2018 to be 4 times instead of 3 previous increases

Argentina's currency fell sharply against the US dollar by nearly 7% amid doubts about the country's central bank's ability to withstand peso losses

Argentina has unveiled a plan to implement IMF demands, including cuts in subsidies and a freeze on jobs

Commodity and metal market

Investors are waiting for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to announce next week a cut of 1.8 million bpd by the end of 2018.

Saudi Arabia has expected a gradual deal to increase crude production after reports that Riyadh has offered multiple visions to boost oil production

US oil production continues to rise to weekly record highs of 10.9 million bpd, approaching Russian levels as the largest crude producer

For its part, the US Energy Information Administration raised the oil price estimates over the next year, but kept the average price of "Brent" this year

As OPEC's decision awaited, the price of US crude rose at the settlement level

As for metals, the price of gold rose at the highest level in a month at the settlement thanks to the week of global monetary policy decisions LINK

IMF hails US economic outlook and warns of 5 risks

14th June, 2018

The International Monetary Fund that the prospects for the US GDP strong but highlighted five risks to the US economy and the global economy

In a report on the US economy, the IMF said Thursday that the near-term outlook for the US economy indicates strong growth and job creation

Unemployment rates are already near levels not seen since the late 1960s and economic growth is set to accelerate, the report said

At the same time, IFAD has identified five risks to the US economy and the global economy
He explained that the first risk is high public debt, while the biggest risk lies in the rapid rise of inflationary pressures

The report noted that these pressures are likely to push the Fed to raise interest rates at a faster pace

The US central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points during its last meeting, ranging from 1.75% to 2%, with expectations of a potential increase to increase four times this year

The IMF also warned of the risk of a shift in US policy that could lead to negative risks to companies, individuals and institutions and may be reflected in capital flows, especially in emerging markets

The IMF also highlighted the risks of future recession as well as increased global imbalances

The IMF said there was agreement on the need to increase federal spending on infrastructure, but that planned expansion of the deficit would make budget resources available to invest in the scope of required reforms that would promote medium-term growth and raise living standards LINK

Source: Dinar Recaps



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