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Monday, March 12, 2018

"Hitting the Nail Dead on" - Dinar Alert News Discussion 3-12-18

Dinar Alert

Tgirl:
Central Bank of Iraq (CBI) News > Central reserves exceed 50 billion


03/11/2018 Economy News _ Baghdad The head of operations at the Central Bank, Sunday, said that the reserve currency in the Central Bank exceeded (50) billion dollars.

"The time has come for banks to diversify their portfolios through the settlement of salaries through ways to attract traders and importers who are more familiar with the market, and should work in this direction in the future," said Mahmoud Dagher. .

​He pointed out that "the improvement in the value of the Iraqi dinar against the dollar recently, is not a new phenomenon, but the outcome of the work continued for a full year, was through the identification of significant measures on the process of currency presentation and address the violations of demand.

Dagher added that the central bank was able to achieve high stability of the upper and lower limits to the dollar, the dinar, and then moved to a new situation this year were new procedures adopted classification and scrutiny as well as supply.

However, "the official price target of the dollar is 1200 dinars per one dollar and that the gap in the exchange market in the presence of a fixed price adopted by the central bank is available in many economies, an acceptable change."

http://economy-news.net/content.php?id=11480

Punisher: The 50 Billion figure was also reported here yesterday....

http://dinaralert.webs.com/apps/forums/topics/show/13472620-the-high-value-of-the-dinar-enhances-international-confidence-in-the-iraqi-economy

and the bank that aims to increase the demand , it is upgrading Atadhavh attic. Cash reserve and stressed that the cash reserves of Iraq exceeded $ 50 billion, and it is time that the banks go to diversify

Wn: Baaah Baaah Amazing how they can be in the hole financialy but keep increasing their reserves. Baaah

TrixieDinar: Wn, government spending and the CBI reserves are two different entities. We have trillions in government debt, but the Federal Reserve still has "reserves" that are not used towards our deficit.. Reserves attribute to the currency value and we want the reserves to be as large as possible.

Wn: Thank you TrixieDinar for your thoughtfull explanation. Exactly where is the added income that is adding to the reserves coming from? I know the customs fees, oil sales, import/export duties, and most other income i can't even think of goes to running the country ie the budget.

Currency sales (auctions) arent money makers. The small commission the CBI earns isn't enough to add billions to the reserves, and then the CBI needs to replentish the USD sold at the auctions, so where is it comming from.

I know that the CBI is giving real money to the GOI in exchange for bonds with a high inflation rate which I assume the CBI is adding to their balance sheet as an asset. To me that is as good as holding counterfeit Dinar and hoping it goes up. The GOI has proved that they don't pay their debts. Again TrixieDinar thank you.

Kw: This last paragraph corroborates the other article

http://dinaralert.webs.com/apps/forums/show/5120026-iraq-dinar-iraqi-banks-iraqi-stock-exchange-isx-news:

However, "the official price target of the dollar is 1200 dinars per one dollar and that the gap in the exchange market in the presence of a fixed price adopted by the central bank is available in many economies, an acceptable change." This looks like the target we should look for.

Mike: Wn, you asked a great question, "where are is the added income that adding to the reserves coming from? This is an oldy but a goody, Frank Gunter with the Foregin Policy Institute breaks it down step by step, here's a short excerpt from his article:

In every year but one over the last decade, the inflow of dollars to the CBI from the MoF exceeded the outflow of dollars through currency auctions resulting in an increase in the country’s international reserves.

For example, in 2013 the MoF sold about $55 billion to the CBI while about $53 billion flowed out again through the currency auctions resulting in about a $2 billion increase in international reserves. The large increase in international reserves since 2004 has been the major support for the country’s enviable exchange rate stability. However, the results for 2014 were grim.

https://www.fpri.org/news/2015/08/fpri-senior-fellow-frank-gunter-quoted-on-currency-crisis-in-iraq/

By now, we all know there are no excess petro dollars coming form the MoF, Iraq is slow paying payroll and are cash strapped, there are no extra dollars flowing into the CBI via the MoF, the balance sheets just don't work.

My concern is the the CBI has been buying government bonds, circumventing the existing laws prohibiting the CBI from directly providing funds to the GOI. These bonds may be counted on the asset side of the CBI's reserve ledger and create the illusion of a increase in the CBI's reserves.

I hope I'm wrong, but if you have five minutes to click on the link and better understand the flow of dollars through Iraq ( it even has a flow chart ) it's pretty clear that the reserves would not be growing due to the cost of the war and other debt liabilities and the $48 billion dollar annual cost of supporting government employees.

It's just an opinion based on economic policy, I'd be interested to hear what the board has to say, what are your thoughts?

Kaperoni: They also recently received some money from the DFI but I do not know the amount.

Wn: Mike, thanks for the information. My thoughts run the same way. When oil was north of $100 it was a no brainer because they charged littile or more likely no import duties, had no agri business or manufacturing to speak of, and as most of us have learned thanks to Bob, Kap, you and so many others on DA their dependence and euphoria of oil export was money for the taking.

Now, as Kap said they are getting little amounts from funds "set aside" for them and what ever they can collect in their hats as they continue to beg at these various world meetings. I think the DFI fund was somewhere around $500 million at the most. Much less than most of us will make when the RV happens (just kidding Kap).

I also believe that they are using the government bonds as an asset on their balance sheet. This is acceptable in accounting practice but it only works if the country doean't go BK. At the rate they are moving and the fact that they are CYA in passing laws for their own protection, I think BK could become a possibility.

I have seen the articles about the IMF rejecting the 2018 budget and the articles posted of the Iraq politicians denying it. I have not seen anything from the IMF saying the article was bogus. I would expect the politicians in Iraq to deny this. It is an election year!

One more thought. I also believe the CB USA or FED has the trillions of dollars of bonds of US debt on their balance sheet and would never have the reserves to cover if and when they are cashed in. This is why a loaf of bread cost over $4.00 (inflation).

As they just keep printing the $100. bills the value keeps going down. The same reason we want Iraq to pull in their excess currency. Just my opinions and thanks for the education!

Shengwah I take the CBIs published reserve numbers with a grain of salt. In strategic reserve banking, as a bank I can have $50m, and loan out $45m to several departments of the GOI, and still count that $45m plus interest plus my $5m left over as assets.

The interest expected shows my reserve has grown. As long as the GOI doesn't default on those loans, they remain in the asset column as "reserves". Who knows what Maliki stooge Keywords has done with the reserves? I'd be happy to have Mike or Kap point out the flaw in my reasoning.

Wn: Shengwah, I think you hit the nail dead on. I agree and I believe Kap and Mike would too based on their previous comments

​Mike: Thanks Shengwah, that's kind of what I was afraid of, the CBI's purchase of government bonds are counted as part of the reserves. For sure, I don't expect Iraq to default on the bonds but I'd rather have cash or gold than an Iraqi bond as my currencies reserves. --Stay grounded...

Chattels: Kirk H. Sowell ‏@UticaRisk March 10 From a purely political point of view, the only realistic option is for Abadi to defy the IMF through the election and do without the loans. He will have at least some extra room afterward, but compromising on the KRG issue prior to the election would not be smart.

https://twitter.com/UticaRisk/status/972413700991868928

Punisher: Yes Kw.....I agree!

http://dinaralert.webs.com/apps/forums/topics/show/13472681-central-reserves-exceed-50-billion

(Courtesy of Dinar Recaps)

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