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Thursday, July 27, 2017

Wealthy Chinese have Concerns for the Yuan

The Wealthy Chinese Have Yuan Concern: Preserving Their Wealth

JUL 26, 2017

More recently, the wealthy Chinese seem to be moving to major metropolitan areas due to worries over the stability of China’s currency.

In China, productivity and profitability take a back seat to politics.

The U.S. is the number one stomping ground for the wealthy Chinese, but surprisingly New York is not the most popular destination. Los Angeles leads, followed by Seattle, San Francisco, and New York coming in fourth.

That those three big West Coast cities have passed New York reflects a recognition that this booming city has what it takes to be the next hedge city: an attractive setting, good schools, a diverse, tolerant culture -- and, of course, a real estate market that, despite soaring prices, remains undervalued relative to urban China.

​An eye on better education

One of the key factors as to why the wealthy Chinese are emigrating their families -- and if not that -- then merely their children, is the avoidance of overpopulation, pollution and lack of education.

​The Chinese education system is failing: a degree from a top Chinese university is not as prestigious and doesn’t necessarily help Chinese graduates get a job.

​ An education system that excelled for years by teaching unending memorization has fallen behind.

There are now more Chinese college graduates than ever before, but the rapidly shifting economy has driven new market demands that can’t be fulfilled by the country’s increasing number of graduates. As their education system is spiraling downward, as well as a continued deterioration of their environment, the Chinese want the best for their children.

Locating them near universities and high end educational facilities helps build on this concept. The number of international students in U.S. colleges and universities grew by 7.1%, topping one million in the 2015-16 academic year, according to new federal data released Monday.

China is the largest exporter of international students to the U.S., with Chinese students accounting for 31.5% (328,547) of all international enrollments (1,043,839) in the U.S., per the Institute of International Education.

​ A new concern

More recently, the wealthy Chinese seem to be moving to major metropolitan areas due to worries over the stability of China’s currency. It just keeps falling.

​China’s yuan now trades around 6.86 to $1, just a few years after economists were betting the currency would rise past 6 to $1 and China’s government would no longer be able to suppress its strength.

This year the yuan has fallen 5%, and China’s central bank shows no signs of stopping the latest slide. The central bank did little this past week to support the yuan, traders reported, after earlier interventions this year to buy the yuan have reduced China’s foreign reserves from a high around $4 trillion to $3.2 trillion recently.

More than 80% of Chinese millionaires said that they are seriously concerned about currency devaluation. This is pushing them to move to countries where the currency is more stable and provides relief from the possible devaluation of their wealth.

How investments are decided upon

The Chinese billionaires are not the same as other high end clients. For the Chinese one must keep in mind how closely their culture is held to their heart. Aspects that may be a turn off to a Chinese buyer may be of no concern to others.

For example, numbers are big in Chinese culture, whether they be unlucky or lucky in their eyes. They may play a significant role in them deciding to put forth money into an investment property.

And while like most billionaires, the Chinese are very business savvy, many decide on proceeding with an investment based on government needs. In China, productivity and profitability take a back seat to politics.

The Government publishes regularly a list of industries it wants companies to invest in, and regulators must approve every detail of every deal, from the purchase price to whether firms can obtain foreign currency.

Companies planning to invest in industries the government approves of get the most approvals. This plays a key role in financing as well, as state-owned banks determine which deals get financing and tend to favor those in which the government back.

This process creates a range of problems as many oversees targets often don’t make a lot of sense. In recent years, there has been a rush of investing in foreign football clubs by Chinese firms, because the government is striving to establish China as a soccer powerhouse.

Debt makes for pickiness

Debt, too, is one of the biggest factors in the pickiness of Chinese investment. Simply reducing foreign investment, as regulators in China are now doing, will in all likelihood alleviate short-term pressure on China’s currency and debt levels.

​ It is no surprise that after a record 2016, a recent study revealed Chinese outbound investment dropped 46% in the first half of this year.

What the Chinese are looking for now is wealth preservation. As their currency devalues, the fear of losing their empire is upon them. They must be more cautious with their investing since the smallest slip-up could cost them more than what is on the paper.

U.S. properties are constantly appreciating and becoming more expensive, so they continue to be a safe bet for the wealthy Chinese -- despite the government’s capital controls.

All opinions expressed here are the author's own

Source: Forbes



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