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Saturday, July 29, 2017

"It's Just Gonna Happen!" - Peoples Dinar News Discussion 7-29-17

Peoples Dinar

JMHO!!! It's just gonna happen! Without warning! Without preparation! SUDDENLY!!!

Be a believer, be a receiver. Be a doubter, be a do-withouter!


The Executive Board approves the decision set forth in SM/81/34, Supplement, 1 (3/17/81).

Decision No. 6790-(81/43), March 20, 1981, as amended by Decision No. 11728-(98/56),
May 21, 1998 SM/81/34, Sup. 1

The Executive Board has reviewed the Fund’s policy with respect to multiple currency practices. The Fund shall be guided by the approach outlined in the conclusions set forth below.

​1. Official action should not cause exchange rate spreads and cross rate quotations to differ unreasonably from those that arise from the normal commercial costs and risks of exchange transactions.
(i) Action by a member or its fiscal agencies that of itself gives rise to a spread of more than 2 percent between buying and selling rates for spot exchange transactions between the member’s currency and any other member’s currency would be considered a multiple currency practice and would require the prior approval of the Fund.

(ii) An exchange spread that arises without official action would not give rise to a multiple currency practice.

(iii) Deviations between the buying and selling rates for spot transactions and for other transactions would not be considered multiple currency practices if they represent the additional costs and exchange risks for these other transactions.

b. Action by a member or its fiscal agencies which results in midpoint spot exchange rates of other members’ currencies against its own currency in a relationship which differs by more than 1 percent from the midpoint spot exchange rates for these currencies in their principal markets would give rise to a multiple currency practice. If the differentials of more than 1 percent in these cross rates persist for more than one week, the resulting multiple currency practice would become subject to the approval of the Fund under Article VIII, Section 3.

When difficulties are encountered in the interpretation and application of these criteria in specific cases, particularly concerning the nature of official actions, the staff will present the relevant information to the Executive Board for its determination.

2 The policy of the Fund on the exercise of its approval jurisdiction over exchange measures subject to Article VIII, as set forth in paragraph 2 of Executive Board Decision No. 1034-(60/27), adopted June 1, 1960, remains broadly appropriate.

In accordance with this policy, the Fund will be prepared to grant approval of multiple currency practices introduced or maintained for balance of payments reasons provided the member represents and the Fund is satisfied that the measures are temporary and are being applied while the member is endeavoring to eliminate its balance of payments problems,

and provided they do not give the member an unfair competitive advantage over other members or discriminate among members. The Fund will continue to be very reluctant to grant approval for the maintenance of broken cross exchange rates.

3. In accordance with the Fund’s policy on complex multiple currency practices, as stated in Executive Board Decision No. 649-(57/33), adopted June 26, 1957, the Fund will not approve multiple currency practices under complex multiple rate systems unless the countries maintaining them are making reasonable progress toward simplification and ultimate elimination of such systems, or are taking measures or adopting programs which seem likely to result in such progress.

4. While urging members to apply alternative policies not connected with the exchange system, the Fund will be prepared to grant temporary approval of multiple currency practices introduced or maintained principally for nonbalance of payments reasons, provided that such practices do not materially impede the member’s balance of payments adjustment, do not harm the interests of other members, and do not discriminate among members.

5. To assist the Executive Board in reaching a decision concerning approval or nonapproval of a multiple currency practice subject to approval under Article VIII, Section 3, the reasons underlying the practice and its effects will be analyzed in reports on Article IV ­consultations or in other staff papers dealing with exchange ­systems.

Consistent with the cycle of consultations under Article IV, approval will be granted for periods of approximately one year, in order to provide for a continual review by the Executive Board, except where the practice is maintained only for existing arrangements and for a specified period of time."

Bbrooke21: This is slightly out of my reasoning ability ........... but it does read like ? I hope someone with more knowledge than me, can weigh in on this !!!!

MrsClassy: this is a good summation, not from me but from MM,,,FWIW

There is a meeting with the IMF on 08/01/2017 if I am not mistaken. A one in regard to Article IV with Iraq.

The article above speaks volumes of what has been done over the preceding two years. Not just one year.

I believe this has to do with Article VIII.

They have been working to maintain the exchange rate of the Dinar against Foreign Currency to cover imports entering Iraq while maintaining their independence under law.

They go on to say that they are (IMO) effectively ceasing MCPs (Multi Currency Practices) not supported or at least if are supported by the IMF, they are under the guidance of the IMF when doing so and would be short lived if even relevant.

They have all the mechanisms in place to facilitate trade to serve their national economy from the looks of things.

They have mediation in order to be prepared for typical disputes in trade at borders.

Basically, they are fully ready, if not already INTERNATIONAL and by all means!

They are telling us they are going to contribute to GDP by having implemented monetary policy for sustainable development.

The are telling us the Central Bank has facilitated procedures and controls, became transparent in disclosures in regard to maintaining their exchange rate.

This meeting with the IMF is not about what needs to be done, it is done!

MrsClassy: Iraq has to make the decision to the move to article VIII. They have been enjoying the protection of article XIV since 2003. The IMF has been pushing Iraq to meet all article VIII requirements, yet Iraq still is still not in compliance (Section 2, and currently maintains two exchange restrictions and one multiple currency practice (MCP) subject to Fund approval under Article VIII, Sections 2(a) and 3." )

MrsClassy: . Found this piece on another site. I think this explains it pretty well.

What this means is that Iraq is continuing to try to comply with Article VIII and avail itself from the current transitional arrangements under Article XIV. But unfortunately at the time of this report they had 8 violations or restrictions preventing them from moving to Article VIII.

Once of which is described as MCP or Multiple Currency Practice which is a result of the currency spread exceeding 2% and a violation of Article VIII. Here is a the actual statement describing the violation below…

“The MCP arises from the absence of a mechanism to ensure that the official exchange rate and the market exchange rate do not deviate by more than 2 percent.”

It is very clear that a condition for Iraq to move to Article VIII is that they comply with the 2% rule. That rule is very clear that the Official Rate (CBI rate) and the Market Rate cannot exceed 2%.

This is soooo important, why? Because until they comply with the conditions set forth for Article VIII, the CBI will never be allowed to transition to Article VIII.

Now I am going to move into another area. The question has been asked once they comply with the 2% rule, how long must they sustain that for? Here is the answer from another IMF document…

“The exchange rate may fluctuate within narrow margins of less than ±1 percent around a central rate, or the maximum and minimum values of the exchange rate may remain within a narrow margin of 2 percent for at least three months.”

So there you have it..at least 3 months or 90 days.

So the question is…when will the CBI be compliant with the IMF so they can transition?

We get an answer earlier this week with the IMF Press Release titled…

Statement at the End of an IMF Mission on Iraq
The following paragraph is below…

“The central bank has maintained the peg with the U.S. dollar. The spread between the official and parallel exchange rates narrowed to 2.6 percent in September, thanks to steps taken by the CBI towards the liberalization of the foreign exchange market.”

This is very telling and many would probably overlook it..but the IMF is telling the CBI..you were not in compliance in September 2014 because you exceeded 2%. In fact, they state it clearly… “The spread between the official and parallel exchange rates narrowed to 2.6 percent in September”

2.6% is not good enough, but clearly better than past months for sure. Since they stated the month, we can visit the CBI website and look at the daily currency auctions for the Market Rate (which is posted daily).

We see that during the month of September, 2014, two rates were reported by the CBI for Market Rates 1203 and 1206. Meaning the Market Rate was 1203 dinars to $1 . And at another point during the same month the Market rate fell even further to 1206 dinars to $1.

According to the IMF during the month of September, the spread between the Official Rate (1166) and the Market Rate (1203) and (1206) is at 2.6%. Because this number is beyond the 2% threshold we can say with certainty that at the end of September 2014, the CBI is not in Article VIII compliance.

If we continue to review the CBI daily auctions we can see that the Market Rate fell November 30th, 2014 to 1197 and the CBI has sustained that number for the past 11 days. We can reasonably conclude if 1203/1206 was 2.6% then a reduction to 1197 would at or about 2% according to the IMF.

So we have a starting date of November 30th, 2014 that the CBI is in Article VIII compliance with the IMF.

And we can then apply the 3 month or 90 day minimum requirement to this date and see that the very soonest the IMF would allow the CBI to avail itself and accept the obligations under Article VIII would be February 28th/March 1st 2015.

MrsClassy: * I remind everyone that the CBI must sustain this rate for the entire 3 month period with limited fluctuation as the IMF states.. “The exchange rate may fluctuate within narrow margins of less than ±1 percent around a central rate, or the maximum and minimum values of the exchange rate may remain within a narrow margin of 2 percent for at least three months.”

Faith works: IMO: This is one of the condition for Iraqi or any nation on multiple currency practise for any reason to attain section 8. Iraqi has to remove multiple currencies practices from their national monetary practices. Stop spending dollars and start using your own money and become a mature nation.

By so doing their monetary value will rise above dollars and Iraqi can enter into the big boys status article 8.

The guidelines for such exchange and the possible spread for such exchange by the banks was also mentioned.

They know that if it was not made clear, some banks are very greedy.

Thepreacherman2017: * I remind everyone that the CBI must sustain this rate for the entire 3 month period with limited fluctuation as the IMF states..

“The exchange rate may fluctuate within narrow margins of less than ±1 percent around a central rate, or the maximum and minimum values of the exchange rate may remain within a narrow margin of 2 percent for at least three months.”

( My curiosity is stirred after reading this and I'm only asking this because I would like to know, does anyone know if they had the spread within the 2 percent margin when they raised it from 4000/1 to what it is now? Just curious. Inquiring minds would like to know?!?!




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