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Monday, November 14, 2016

Dinarland Highlights for November 13, 2016

Dinarland Highlights - 11.13.16


"Central Bank: the deletion of zeros in early 2017"

Maybe 2017 is the year that Iraq starts the process, I'm looking forward to seeing Iraq get rid of the MCP, remove all exchange restrictions and accept Article VIII with the IMF. If they do that in 2017, you'll know the process has begun. If they don't, you'll know this is just another article from a proxy CBI governor designed to placate the masses... just my opinion.


Article quotes:
"The governor of the Iraqi Central Bank, said the bank began to develop the first steps of the project to delete the three zeroes from the Iraqi currency."

"...the bank is working on mechanisms for the implementation of the project, it is expected to start at the beginning of 2017."

This is really the only article that matters..."begins it's first steps..." ...which implies they are on this "1st Q 2017" or before...and make it a competitor to foreign currencies..." Boom. "...the beginning of 2017..." as per their phrasing - is like, 49 days away? I think I can hang in there for that much.


Question: “We all know we can buy dinar from specific traders but when people say, “when will Iraq become Internationally tradeable.” what that really means is when can we go to our local bank and buy and sell dinar? It’s still treated as an exotic currency.”

Look at all the currencies out there that are in the same range as the Iraqi Dinar…some you can buy and some you can’t. So that depends on the bank. There is no international law. When there were banks selling the Iraqi Dinar there was only a couple of them. For them to get the dinar. Order it. and be able to get it to their banks and give it to you…they are not making enough money. It disrupts business...Like Bank of America and these banks...I remember from one of the Bank of America employees that’s way up there…and so we talked about it. Basically he said they stopped selling dinar because it disrupted business. You had little old ladies calling every day asking “did the dinar revalue.” every single day. It just came up on them…this huge huge hype built into it and they simply had to shut it down. All the banks finally did it cause it was that big of a deal. That hype is gone by the way. It simply doesn’t exist. You can’t use that as a benchmark at all. It doesn’t matter if Bank of America sells it or Chase Bank it simple does not matter.


"Central Bank: the deletion of zeros in early 2017"

I am loving seeing this back in the news... BL [Guru Bondlady] always said it's VERY good when they are talking about it! I have great hope for the new year. Shabs always said he needed stability and with the ongoing offensive in Mosul there will be stability in all of Iraq in a matter of months. There was a great article today about the CBI and the US Treasury. Article: "Central Bank of Iraq signed an agreement with the US Treasury to stop funding the organization Daesh" It reinforces our belief in this investment and that Iraq does have so much help! Lets...stay the course, better days are coming for sure.


"Central Bank: the deletion of zeros in early 2017"

This IS a great article and aligns/confirms the plan we've been watching regarding removing the zeros. So what does this mean?

...this means removing the large three zero notes from circulation. Now, that does not mean retiring them...they are legal tender.

...they just recently released the 50k and 100k notes. So, this is an effort to reduce the large note count in circulation. This will also encourage usage of the electronic banking structure that has been in construction for the past few years...balance protection, rate lock windows, etc.

...you will start seeing evidence of the reduction of US Dollar in Iraq.

I'm happy to be wrong, but the "gradual" increase in the value of the dinar that we've been reading about for the past few years may very well start off as a continued managed float before it moves to a full market-driven float to maintain stability. The 2% rate fluctuation stability requirement makes me wonder if that will be the case...to mitigate market reactions to large "steps" or tranching of the rate. We'll have to wait to see. Anyways, this is great news in what I've felt is a bit of a lag or drought of news we can hang our hats on.

How will the notes be removed? If not by law, then by incentive and if the latter is the case, how can you incentivize the Iraqi people to bring in their large notes? Add value to the artificially held down dinar! Reduce the availability of the Dollar and release into circulation the medium notes and eventually the small notes. I believe 2017 is going to be an exciting year in this regard.

...watch for indicators of the tide changing with the dinar. Iraq's back is against the wall and you should be excited. Lastly, just as a reminder which I've often said...this is currency folks... Currency which will represent the true value of Iraq's economy...oil, gold reserves, growing infrastructure, gaining diversification of goods and services and investment faith. Not IF, WHEN...and we are getting closer!


"Proposals on the central bank's decision to grant the loan?"

"The Iraqi government and the Central Bank of Iraq's decision to allocate trillion dinars in the budget of 2017 to give a concessional loan for the establishment of small and medium enterprises is a correct and important step..."

IMO...we are seeing the CBI acting here with regard to this loan for 2017 as though it is a done deal...so could they know already that the budget will be passed...that at least this portion of the budget will skate through Parliament unscathed...How would they be making plans for this loan to these sectors if they didn't know already what was the outcome of the budget process within Parliament...I'm thinking we will see this budget passed this month...by the end of this month...and when it is passed/approved and published...oh the movement of their Monetary Reform will truly swing into a higher gear known more fondly as full speed ahead...


Because they have to "delete the zeroes" they have to announce their steps to get the citizens to bring in their three zeros Dinars. Because they have to issue the lower denoms, they have to announce the program to the citizens. It isn't like they are keeping the old currency and just raising their exchange rate, so they have to make announcements. ISIS has really delayed them for three years (2014-2017.) I've never believed that they would RV 4th quarter of a year, nor do I believe that at this point they will RV prior to gaining control of Mosul.

I also believe that they do need to pass Investment and Banking laws. They need to stop the MCP. Mosul is projected to be done in 2-3 months (everyone can define "done" in different ways, I'm defining it as being safe and secure with mines cleared and roads driveable.) I doubt the GOI is going to get anything else done besides the Budget before February given their track record. Hopefully, February and March they can actually pass what they need to pass and be ready to RV by the end of March-April window, while the CBI "starts" the deletion of the three zeroes the first quarter of 2017, and Mosul is secured. ALL THOSE THINGS ARE ACHIEVABLE by APRIL 2017, and it fits with the CBI's recent statements that they are beginning the process the first quarter of 2017.


[...what is the incentive for the Iraqi people to bring the larger notes in if the value does not exceed the dollar?]

...the plan is to reduce the supply of the dollar. This is huge. If they were flooding the market with the dollar, it would satisfy the need for lower denoms. BUT, since they are reducing the dollar supply and replacing with the dinar, think of the practicality of that at the rate today...ridiculous, right? So, this situation, the supply and then the corresponding necessary increase in the value to make the ease of carry, the incentive is there to use the dinar.

Iraqi Dinar Revaluation and Global Currency Reset News | Dinar Chronicles

Courtesy of Dinar Guru



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