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Wednesday, September 14, 2016

BLC News and Comments w/ tlm724, Shredd for 9-14-16

Bond Lady's Corner 9-14-16

News & Comments with tlm724 & Shredd

Tlm724: High: Abadi failed

Last updated: September 14, 2016 - 12:28

Baghdad / Iraq News Network questioned the head of Civic Democratic Alliance on high, Wednesday, seriously, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi in the implementation of reforms, as he pointed to the existence of "pressure" exerted on Abadi by the "allies" in the coalition Aloutna.oukal high in a press statement today:

"the seriousness of al-Abadi in the further implementation of the reform program is questionable, given the way considered as head of the Council of Ministers to resolve and settle out of the predicament of the third mandate," pointing out that "Abadi leadership of the ruling party and is subject to pressure from his allies in the National Alliance."

He added high that " Abadi has no serious strength and support him on the security side, and therefore the ability to get rid of the sectarian quota system inoperative items,

"noting that" powerful forces managed to force him to return to the contexts of quotas by choosing positions in state institutions and then succeeded in stopping gradually move reforms program and ran it in parliament in April 2016 crisis and the paralysis of the legislative and executive branches. "

Shredd The quota system has got to go and if that means Abadi goes, then so be it imo.

Geofitness Shredd, does the B- rating concern you about our investment? And does the rating have to improve to have the significant increase we're looking for?

Shredd Not at all. Increasing the rating will take significant time and impacts the interest paid on sovereign loans. That said, because of the tremendous support Iraq continues to get, such as the soft loans, this is not having much of an impact.

Tlm724: Thank you Shredd. I think it's a good rating and that rating is appropriate for Iraq given the current circumstances. There was an article posted by ikea on the subject of the Finch ratings. I'll link you to the whole article on Reuters but would like to show a few key quotes since we're on the subject :

" Iraq and the IMF agreed a stand-by arrangement (SBA) in July 2016, which entails USD5.34bn of funding over three years. The funding is front-loaded, providing USD1.9bn between July and end-2016. Performance criteria under the SBA seem broadly realistic, but implementing earmarked structural reforms is likely to prove more difficult.

Risks attached to the programme are high, but the Iraqi government has a strong incentive to adhere to the SBA. In 2016 the IMF programmes for a deficit of IQD26trn (USD22bn) for Iraq. "

Tlm724: Money is the incentive and Iraq will do whatever is needed to keep those funds moving and comply with the SBA.

"RATING SENSITIVITIES The main factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to a downgrade are:

-Evidence of stress in financing fiscal shortfalls.

-Further deterioration in the country's security, particularly if insecurity spreads to new geographical areas or hinders oil production or exports.

The main factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive rating action are:

-A sustained period of oil prices higher than our current forecasts, particularly if combined with higher oil production and exports and leading to an improvement in Iraq's public and external finances.

-A fundamental improvement in the country's security that allows for stronger non-oil economic development. KEY ASSUMPTIONS Fitch forecasts Brent crude to average USD42/b in 2016, USD45/b in 2017 and USD55/b in 2018.

We assume that Iraqi oil sells at a consistent discount to Brent. Fitch forecasts Iraqi oil exports (excluding exports from the Kurdish region) to average 3.3m b/d in 2016-17.

Fitch does not incorporate into its fiscal numbers an oil-sharing agreement between the central government and the Kurdish Regional Government, given the patchy track record for implementing this agreement."

​Tlm724: Finch is showing us that they are indeed flexible with this rating and it's essentially up to Iraq to make the needed improvements as mentioned above. Security is improving with the march on to Mosul.

IF they actually reach a firm and implemented agreement with the Kurds with full participation from both sides this will increase their rating also. This article indicates that the outlook is negative but I disagree ! All in all Iraq is on the right track.

No one ever said it would be easy given the amount of work to be done ie: Banks and GOI reform, fighting corruption and terrorism. Iraq has a full plate but with each new phase we get closer !!

Fitch Affirms Iraq at 'B-'; Outlook Negative



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