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Friday, August 11, 2017

Dinarland Highlights for August 10, 2017

Dinarland Highlights - 8.10.17

Adam Montana

[I am curious about all of the billions of dinar that has been stolen from Iraq by ISIS and of course the big Maliki? Will this have an effect on the possible RV in the future or do you feel that the money has already been spent and back in the hands of the CBI?]


From what I'm told, and making a fairly educated guess, at least half of that "cash" is not a consideration - lost, burned, or buried. The other half is mostly accounted for and is going to be factored into the RV amount.
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Kaperoni

"Iraq : 2017 Article IV Consultation and Second Review under the Three-Year Stand-by Arrangement..."

Quote:
"The simplification of documentation requirements implemented by the Central Bank of Iraq led to a decline in the parallel market spread to 6 percent in June 2017."

So we have confirmation from the IMF that the CBI spread (official rate to market rate is at 6%)...well out of compliance of the required 2% in order to move to Article VIII. The CBI has to find a way to get the market rate down to 1207 or so. Currently it is 1260. ...the IMF states that Ali al-Allaq and his team have lowered the spread from 11% in December to about 6% currently. Still out of compliance for acceptance into Article VIII, but progress. ...the CBI believes that three of the SB's (i believe that means Structural Benchmarks) can be met very soon. The key one's seems to be the law in parliament to modify the CBI law and freeing up one of the CBI's current financial restrictions which they believe is the reason for the current 6% spread. If so, this is more good news. Clearly they are working to reduce the spread and get in compliance as soon as possible.

"Steps to strengthen the legal framework of the CBI, remove one remaining exchange restriction and implement AML/CFT measures need to be accelerated. Iraq currently maintains one exchange restriction and one multiple currency practice (see Informational Annex) for which staff is not recommending approval. Removal of these, and implementation of AML/CFT measures, will help to improve the integration of the domestic financial system into the global economy." This paragraph is telling. It says very clearly... "staff is not recommending approval." In other words, they have to meet compliance on these. The good news is these are achievable. And meeting them they would then be in Article VIII compliance. Just get it done Iraq! ...the IMF has been frustrated with Iraq keeping on target and doing what was agreed. But the good news is that they have reviewed that with them and come to terms to continue such efforts which include..."implementing structural reforms to promote private sector activity."

"The government will gradually remove remaining exchange restrictions and a multiple currency practice (MCP) with a view to eliminating exchange rate distortions. Such a move towards acceptance of the obligations under Article VIII of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement will send a positive signal to the investor community that Iraq is committed to maintain an exchange system that is free of MCPs and restrictions for current international transactions and thus facilitate creation of a favorable business climate..." Article VIII is not that far away. If the CBI can get past these two restrictions they can move to Article VIII. Doing so is exactly what we want to see. The one thing I keep reading throughout the Article IV Consultation is how Iraq has missed numerous target dates. On a positive, as of late, they seem to be catching up or meeting some of the conditions. Looks like by June 2018 they want the CBI to be fully compliant with international standards and reporting accordingly. That is less than a year for the banking system to be fully compliant and hopefully integrated with the worlds banking system.
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rickjames2

they [The CBI] are still actively using the cbi.3eyon-host.net site and seem to be running tests to make sure vulnerability to viruses and hacking is not an issue...(1) go to Cbi.iq website and go to English (Home) (2) click on statistics and then Extended statistics...the cbi.3eyon-host.net site comes up. (3) click on home at top right. (4) click on read more under Dddtd posting. (5) Highlight Dddtd and Ddhfh...then right click. Note...when I did this yesterday a page came up that said a Vulnerability scan and report was done on August 8, 2017 to the cbi.3eyon-host.net. I saw the page...it looks like they want to make sure it is virus and hack protected.
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DELTA (KTFA)

Abadi:
"Iraq also exited from the UN's Chapter Seven"

PM praises the development of Iraq's economy and encourages investment and diversification in his weekly press conference:
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Adam Montana

[Any news on the HCL?]


I'm waiting on some news as of now, actually as of a couple days now... it's coming.
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BGG (Dinar Updates)

[Iraqi Prime Minister Abadi announced the below on the Iraqi Govt Twitter: THE OIL-FOR-FOOD FILE HAS BEEN RESOLVED COMPLETELY]

Apples and watermelons. Ch 7 designation and the Oil-for-Food are different files entirely. The last remaining Oil-for-Food money was reportedly turned over to Iraqi control. However, to imply this means the lifting of all Ch 7 "sanctions" is not an accurate analysis. There really aren't much in the way of Ch 7 sanctions left in force anyway. Further, I highly doubt the UN completely removes the Ch 7 designation anytime soon. I suspect they want the latitude to go in and help settle things down again - if needed. As they did with ISIS. None of this is directly detrimental to a value change in the currency...If it were - How would it have been possible for the CoM and CBI to have been planning a value change back in 2012?
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Chattels (Wealthwatch)

Details are lacking for me to be ebullient about Iraq's Chapter Seven status. In my opinion is not at all clear from the English translation what he is saying or means. Abadi specifically said that the food-for-oil is " entirely " resolved, but he did not say such about Chapter Seven.

[We're still in the right direction.]

There is progress.
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RayRen98 (TNT)

A video surfaced where PM Abadi held a press conference on Wednesday and supposedly makes an "oh, by the way" type of comment publicly stating the exit of UN's Chapter 7. There is concern on the validity of this video and it's english written subtitles. Inconclusive reports indicate that the IMF has announced that Iraq is Article 8 compliant. Kuwait has supposedly received its last payment...awaiting more solid information. If all 3 of these statements prove to be true and accurate...August 21 may be a moot point. Time Will Tell...ALL!

UPDATE!! AFTER RECEIVING THE VIDEO FROM ABADI'S PERSONAL TWITTER ACCOUNT, I WILL ACCEPT IT AS VALIDATION.
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Bluwolf

UPDATE: UN ANNOUNCEMENT: " IRAQ IS OFFICIALLY A SOVEREIGN COUNTRY", 10 AUGUST 8.10.17 ...a UN announcement is expected informing the world that now Iraq is officially a sovereign country with no ties to sanctions whatsoever.

Iraqi Dinar Revaluation and Global Currency Reset News | Dinar Chronicles

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