TETELESTAI Notification List

The TETELESTAI (It is finished) email which will contain the first 800#'s will be posted first on a private page and will be sent out to everyone subscribed to the private page's feed.

If you wish to subscribe to the private page's feed, please visit the TETELESTAI page located HERE and access the private page.

If you're having trouble please give me an email at TetelestaiDC@gmail.com

(Note: The TETELESTAI post is the official "Go" for redemption/exchange.)

Guest Posting & Responding Now Available

Dinar Chronicles is now allowing viewers to guest post and respond to articles. If you wish to respond or speak your mind and write a post/article or about the current situation relating to Iraq, the RV, the GCR and so on. You may now send in an entry.

All you need to do is send your entry to UniversalOm432Hz@gmail.com with these following rules.

The subject line of your email should be: "Entry | (Title of your post) | Dinar Chronicles"

- Proper grammar
- Solely write intel, rumors, news, thoughts, messages regarding Dinarland, Iraq, the RV, the GCR, NESARA/GESARA, the Republic, Spirituality, Ascension and anything that is relating
- Your signature/name/username at the end (If you wish to remain anonymous then you don't need to provide one.)

If you have any questions or wish to communicate with us then please give us an email at UniversalOm432Hz@gmail.com

Send your entry and speak out today!

Follow Dinar Chronicles by Email

Featured Post

Restored Republic via a GCR: Update as of Nov. 23, 2017

Restored Republic via a GCR Update as of Nov. 23 2017 Compiled 12:35 am EDT 23 Nov. 2017 by Judy Byington, MSW, LCSW, ret, CEO, Child Abus...

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

Yuan Bears say it isn't Worth Fighting China's PBOC

Yuan bears throw in the towel, say it isn't worth fighting China's PBOC

(Corrects figure to trillion from billion in paragraph 13)


By Vidya Ranganathan

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - A slew of Western investors and traders who placed bets in the past two years that China’s yuan currency would drop because of a weaker Chinese economy, the threat of a debt crisis, and capital outflows, abandoned those positions in recent months.

They have decided that – at least in the short term - they may well be on a loser if they try to fight the People’s Bank of China, the nation’s central bank, which has been taking a series of measures that appear aimed at keeping the currency stable.

This is particularly the case ahead of an autumn congress of the ruling Communist Party of China, that is expected to allow Chinese leader Xi Jinping to consolidate his power. Also, the Chinese economy has been more robust than expected, the nation’s authorities have taken stiff measures to reduce capital outflows, and the U.S. dollar has been retreating from gains it made last year.

Major global fund managers – such as Goldman Sachs Asset Management, Old Mutual Global Investors, Standard Life Investments and Aviva Investors -- have taken off short yuan positions even as many of them see some weakness further down the road.

The PBOC has made some moves to defend the yuan, which is also known as the renminbi. It has pushed up the cost of short-selling the currency and even changing the way it sets a daily mid-point used as a benchmark.

"They are not happy with a really weaker renminbi," said Mark Nash, the London-based head of global bonds at Old Mutual Global Investors. "People obviously don’t want to fight the central bank.”

Nash, whose firm manages $44.7 billion globally, said he had been short the yuan at the turn of 2017 but took that position off early in the year.

But he said he believes the strength in the yuan is reflective more of "an exercise in financial regulation" rather than an improvement in China's economic outlook and hopes to go short again soon.

Standard Life Investments' Hong Kong-based emerging markets fixed income fund manager, Mark Baker, said he gave up his short yuan position in the first quarter of 2017, after seeing the success China was having with capital controls and some improvement in economic data. "There is a desire to rein in expectations that the currency is merely a one-way bet,” he said.

The PBOC did not respond to a Reuters request for comments for this article.

The yuan (CNY=CFXS) has risen 2 percent against the dollar so far this year. In the latest policy tweak, the PBOC has included a "counter-cyclical factor" in its method for fixing the daily mid-point around which the currency is allowed to trade.

The adjustment to the fixing method in May was the second this year and came after a string of capital control moves, all aimed at stopping domestic Chinese investors from moving cash abroad.

That has put a floor under a currency which fell 6.5 percent in 2016 and 4.5 percent in 2015. Concern about the decline led the central bank to spend a trillion dollars over 2-1/2-years to defend the yuan.

Short yuan positions are expensive. It costs about 5 percent annually to own and short the yuan directly based on short-term borrowing costs, though there are a myriad ways in which an investor or trader can structure a short bet. Some investors interviewed for this article said they mainly use offshore forward currency contracts - settled for cash at a particular date - which makes the trade somewhat cheaper.

INTENTIONS UNCLEAR

Beijing is also keen on keeping the yuan strong so that U.S. President Donald Trump isn’t given any reason to take tough trade measures against China. During the election campaign, Trump had accused Beijing of manipulating its currency to make Chinese exports more competitive, hurting U.S. companies.

The stronger yuan also helps to dissuade Chinese companies and citizens from moving money offshore.

Jonathan Xiong, head of the fixed income alternatives group at Goldman Sachs Asset Management, said he closed out his short yuan positions at the beginning of the year as China’s growth prospects improved.

Stuart Ritson, head of Asian rates and FX at Aviva Investors, with about $453 billion under management, removed his short position around the end of the first quarter, and is now positive on the yuan owing to the PBOC's preference for a stronger currency, reduced capital outflows and because the yuan offers one of the best yields relative to volatility among emerging market currencies. Ritson hasn’t taken a bullish bet as yet.

Not everyone has left the trade. Kyle Bass, the founder of Dallas-based hedge fund Hayman Capital Management, has kept his short position because he says he believes the nation’s credit bubble problems are “metastasizing.”

​Bass, has long argued that the Chinese yuan is set to fall 30 percent against the U.S. dollar. “The numbers are telling me that we are right. The numbers are getting so bad so quickly,” he said.

But even those who see the currency weakening have pulled back their forecasts. Deutsche Bank's chief China economist, Zhiwei Zhang, sees the yuan ending the year at 7.1 per dollar, rather than the 7.4 he was forecasting at the beginning of the year.

There should be some weakness, he says, because economic growth is likely to slow, capital controls could become less effective over time and the dollar may not continue depreciating,

At the other end of the spectrum are fund managers such as Jan Dehn, London-based head of research at asset manager Ashmore Group, who says he believes the market shouldn't be blind-sided by conspiracy theories.

"The recent stabilisation of the yuan has perfectly sound foundations and can be explained without having to resort to some suspect or obscure schemes on the part of Chinese policy makers," said Dehn.

Source: Yahoo! Finance

Reactions:

Disclamer:

We are in compliance with, "Copyright Disclaimer Under Section 107 of the Copyright Act 1976, allowance is made for "fair use" for purposes such as criticism, comment, news reporting, teaching, scholarship, and research. Fair use is a use permitted by copyright statute that might otherwise be infringing. Non-profit, educational or personal use tips the balance in favor of fair use."

All rights reserved go to their respective holders. We do not own the intellectual property shown on this website, the respective holders own that privilege unless stated otherwise.

We do not endorse any opinions expressed on the Dinar Chronicles website. We do not support, represent or guarantee the completeness, truthfulness, accuracy, or reliability of any content or communications posted on Dinar Chronicles.

Dinar Chronicles is not a registered investment adviser, broker dealer, banker or currency dealer and as such, no information on the website should be construed as investment advice. We do not intend to and are not providing financial, legal, tax, political or any other advice to any reader of the website. This website is...Read More