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Thursday, June 1, 2017

What Pimco Expects Over 3 to 5 Years for the Chinese Economy

What Pimco Expects for the Chinese Economy Over the Next 3 to 5 Years

By Isabella Zhong Updated

May 31, 2017 10:58 p.m. ET

Where is the world’s second largest economy headed? Challenges abound as China looks to liberalize its financial markets, rein in its mountainous debt and reform bloated state-owned enterprises.

Richard Clarida, Andrew Balls and Daniel Ivascyn from Pimco had a peek at the crystal ball and the baseline scenario didn’t look too bad.

The trio expects an orderly crawling depreciation of the Chinese yuan against the U.S. dollar and remaining capital controls being sufficient to limit to foreign exchange reserve losses to less than $1 trillion although China’s GDP growth would slow to a 5.5% annual pace.

They add that risks for China appear to be skewed to the downside.

But things could be rosier. Most notably, an optimistic scenario could see China’s GDP growth sustained at 6.5% annual pace.

In an optimistic scenario, some colleagues believe that President Xi pulls off a clean sweep at the 19th Party Congress and uses his enhanced stature to end policy paralysis and embark on a major reform agenda that improves the economy’s efficiency: better balanced, less reliant on leverage, and an attractive destination for capital inflows.

In this upside scenario, China’s growth remains above the current pace of 6.5%, disruptive devaluation is avoided, and the glide path to a floating exchange rate is a smooth one.

President Trump and President Xi strike a grand bargain on trade, currency and geopolitical spheres of influence, perhaps including an acceptable freeze or wind-down of North Korea’s missile program.

However, a not-so-pleasant bearish scenario could also unfold.

However, there is also a bearish scenario for China. In this left-tail view, President Xi overreaches, and the 19th Party Congress is deemed a failure, setting off a vicious cycle of policy misfires – making August 2015 look like a picnic – and an intensified power struggle ensues as the old guard, resistant to SOE reform, reasserts its muscle. In this downside scenario, the economy stalls, defaults mount, the shadow banking system implodes and GDP growth collapses.

​The U.S. levies across-the-board tariffs against Chinese imports, triggering a bilateral trade war. China follows with a globally disruptive CNY devaluation which accelerates capital flight and leads to a huge drain on foreign currency reserves.

The People’s Bank of China is forced to tighten in a vain effort to maintain some control over the exchange rate.

However, with property and equity markets in free-fall, the central bank gives up on the peg, the CNY floats, and capital outflow intensifies, causing a riskoff jolt to global markets and confidence.

As China’s economy matures, new megacities outside of the familiar Beijing and Shanghai are also poised to emerge. For more on how to invest in up-and-coming centers like Xuzhou, Taian and Weifang, check out colleague Daniel Shane’s column How to Invest in China’s Next Megacities.

Source: Barrons

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