Mountain Goat News Brief
November 19, 2016
I bring you much news today. So in reading the news today I always try to remember what I already know and how the new news relates to it. So is the news all new or is it a continuance of an ongoing saga?
So the really big news is the change in the currency auctions to letters of credit. They have been kicking around this idea for awhile (especially finance committee member Tamimi) and now it was announced they are doing it BY THE CBI. So do the currency auctions just go away? I don’t think they will entirely ever just go away but certainly they are no longer going to use them to the extent they did in the past to obtain USD to pay debtors outside Iraq. Folks, if true, this is HUGE, HUGE news of the week but maybe not the slant that you think. So let me explain.
So many people are all now hyped up over this change over to letters of guarantees change in the CBI currency process. Since many have been told these auctions would stop when the currency goes international they now conclude it has gone international. Really? Just like that? Did you rationally think about what just happened? Have you been reading the news all along? So this is why I am here to show everyone!
The elimination of the currency auctions replaced with letter of credit does not change the fact that merchants are still mandated under sanctions to use only US dollars to pay outside country debtors. Just a change in the process of how they obtain these dollars, that’s all. Get it? This change will cut down corruption and help bring the “Market” rate closer to the “CBI” rate of the dinar. Right now it is fluctuating beyond the mandated 2% +-. They need to stabilize the rate as much as they can prior to what is coming in early 2017….hint..hint…
So my last comment is really the HUGE news as it does all tie together what they are doing.
When they do use the Iraqi dinar to pay outside debtors then this will then mean the currency is then international, but not there yet. So changeover to mandate to using letters of guarantee still mean they are in closed economy under sanctions and not yet fully under Article 8 of IMF charter. Rumors debunked again.
CBI Decides to be a Letter of Guarantee
Iraqi dinar - d n / p p
Twilight News / Central Bank decided on Thursday, requiring broker for buying and selling currencies letter of guarantee 100 percent of their capital over the next four years from 25 percent currently companies.
The bank said in a statement Alsumaria News received a copy of it "decides to be a letter of guarantee for companies to broker the sale and purchase of foreign currencies 100% of their capital over the next four years."
The bank said "the Board of the Central Bank studied this decision in the light of the applications received and decided to be letters of guarantee of 25% of the company's' capital that the increase is completed before the first of January 2017 and increased annually by 25%, ie, to be 100% during the four years. "
The bank pointed out that "the decision will be motivated to work for these companies in accordance with the bank's requirements and comply with the decision in the area of sales of foreign currency. (So in my last news letter I brang you an article by an economists that talked about the selling of currency applied letters of credit and how it is an alternative to the currency auctions and could help reduce the corruption in the auctions and steady the market rate to the CBI rate. But I don’t think this is related so much to the bulk currency auctions as it is in general to highly regulate currency dealers overall. What I like most in the article are two things: 1) the required first 25% by January 2017; 2) I quote from the article “in the area of the sales of foreign currency”. So what other “foreign currency do they now deal with so much as they have to highly regulate it? None – except the US dollar. So why not just use the US dollar term in article? So in this article it appears they are going forward with this approach. Let’s see what they say about the currency auctions in the coming days. Will they end the currency auctions? We know they will end once they go international with the currency)
Training Security forces is part of a security agreement with the United States and calls for politicians to activate the security agreement now with USA
BAGHDAD / SNG
Called Samaha religious authority, Grand Ayatollah Mohammed Taqi school, on Friday, the politicians in Iraq to call for activating the security agreement with the USA, and described it as the Convention "Oatrih", as he emphasized that the damage to Iraq because of the occupation "enormous" can not Jubranha easily.
The school said in a statement SNG received a copy of it, that "the agreement concluded in 2008 between the Iraqi government and the United States Oatrih", calling on politicians in Iraq to "claim activating the security pact with the United States of America." (the author apparently does not know the status of forces agreement of 2008 expired on Dec 2011 however there is already a renewed agreement signed this year for 10 years. This is the actual agreement now they are asking for the USA to train their army and security forces once again)
He said the school, that "enormous damage to Iraq and its effects are still in succession because of the occupation can not be easily Jubranha," noting that "the growing takfiri forces and the collapse of the former military establishment and the emergence of separatism among some is the most prominent of these damages."
Addressing the school's political leaders, saying, "The country has given God Almighty to the people of the brave and generous and immolated Iraqi Kalshab We must rise above led to a high level," adding that "marches millions heading to the shrine of the tribe martyr peace be upon him and the accompanying epics tender."
He said the school, said: "These marches have made Iraq the first country in the vineyard and in the pride and dignity and she hardened people and seriousness in claim legitimate rights of the guide," noting that "the most prominent of these rights and territorial integrity and restore its glory and power and bringing them to where the worth of progress."
He concluded his statement by saying the school authority, said that "our valiant able to achieve tremendous achievements and leaders to explain the image transparent to the people who are still prepared to do more for the liberation of the remaining occupied lands."
Iraq has signed the United States, in 2008, the Framework Agreement strategy to support Iraqi ministries and agencies in the transition from the strategic partnership with the Republic of Iraq to the economic, diplomatic, cultural and security fields, based on reducing the number of reconstruction teams in the provinces, as well as provide an important sustainable for the rule of law,including police development and completion of the coordination and supervision and the report of the Fund for Iraq relief and reconstruction program. (so what are the objectives of the strategic partnership? I quote from the article above “to support Iraqi ministries and agencies in the transition from the strategic partnership with the Republic of Iraq”. So you see it is not about army occupation of Iraq but instead all about giving the necessary training and schooling to help Iraq in their transition to a peaceful country)
Iraq is ready to open a “flexible dialogue” with the United States to facilitate foreign investment
Long-Presse / Baghdad
Counting financial advisor to the prime minister, Haidar al-Abadi, Friday, to invite America to Iraq for “create real investment opportunities” and change the contract formula “positive and are subject to consultation”, while counting that Americans are “sensitive” about investor protection, he stressed Iraq’s willingness to open ” flexible dialogue “to facilitate foreign investment, especially with the United States, because it serves the march of progress and development in the country.
(so what does “flexible dialogue” mean? It means to negotiate terms. Sounds like Iraq is now ready to do what it has to do to bring in USA Investors. Folks this is exactly what the USA wanted to hear. Do you think the USA will need Iraq to have a real currency?)
He said the appearance of Mohammed Saleh, in an interview to the (long-Presse), “The invitation of the US Department of Commerce to create real investment opportunities and change contracts formula, positive and are subject to consultation, particularly the United States held through its embassy in Baghdad, a seminar last week on ways of infrastructure financing in Iraq”.
Saleh added that “financing techniques have become different since it depends on the participation and the construction, operation and transfer of ownership,” adding that “the seminar witnessed raise the issue of government contracts where Pena to the Ministry of Planning is the charge that it has a higher committee in this regard.”
He explained adviser Abadi, that “Iraq has signed the most international agreements to protect foreign investors, particularly in the areas of arbitration, because we are still in this case the middle of the road”, he returned that “the Americans are sensitive to this issue.”
Saleh said that “arbitration cases means of conflict resolution with the executing companies, when a legal dispute with the company executing happens there will be an international point of arbitration,” pointing out that “Americans prefer international arbitration bodies, and Iraq, for his part flexible as to protect its interests and foreign companies.”
He continued financial advisor to the prime minister, that “the Americans did not enter a lot of investments in Iraq with no Thssna toward it,” asserting that “the investment with the United States is vital and important for the post-Daesh.”
(wonder why Americans did not enter into investments prior? With the likes of Maliki, the Iranian influence, militia violence, lack of laws who would want to? Is this now all going to change? Has it changed already?)
Saleh explained that “Iraq shows high degree of flexibility to open a dialogue in order to facilitate foreign investment on special assignment with the United States, because it serves the march of progress and development in the country.”
He urged the US Department of Commerce (the 16th of November 2016), Iraq to create a “real opportunities” can be funded by investors, and change the existing formulas for decades and provide greater facilities for business, and while I went back to tourism investment is “best suited” to Basra, called provinces South to set up projects suited to their needs and “not reproducing” those that implement other governorates.
The legal adviser of the US Department of Commerce, Mays Abbas Alabbosi, announced in (the twentieth of October 2015 the past), all seeking to activate twinning signed the Convention in 2012, between the cities of Houston and American Basra, to take advantage of the first experience in the oil industry development, especially that Basra can be a center of the oil industry in the Middle East.
IMF Stand-By Arrangement
In July, the IMF approved a three-year Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) for Iraq for $5.34 billion. According to the IMF, the loan will support the government’s economic reform and debt sustainability initiatives, building on what it describes as the success of the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) that began in November 2015.
Since the SMP’s approval, Iraq achieved three of five target objectives including: 1) meeting required levels of assets and 2)reserves for the Central Bank of Iraq and 3)maintaining a non-oil income above the required floor. Iraq also managed to meet all three structural benchmarks by completing a survey of domestic debts on non-oil investment spending, compiling a list of all spending of the central government, and appointing an external auditor to audit state-owned banks 2014 financial statements according to international standards.
The loan approval allows for the immediate disbursement of an initial $634 million. The remaining funds will be disbursed contingent on certain performance criteria consistent with the program’s objectives to reform Iraq’s financial and economic policy. (can it get any clearer that the payments are carrots dangled in front of Iraq to perform)
The IMF outlined a number of objectives it seeks to achieve with this programincluding improving Iraq’s foreign exchange policy.
The government will do so by maintaining the Iraqi dinar’s peg to the US dollar to ensure economic stability.
The Iraqi government will also remove restrictions on currency exchange. This will be an important part of encouraging investment in the country as it will signal that currency can be freely exchanged without government restrictions, which creates a more favorable business environment for investors.
It also seeks to strengthen the anti-money laundering and combating of financing of terrorism (AML-CFT) framework to prevent currency speculation, or the buying and selling of currency for a profit. Currency speculation can have serious consequences on Iraq’s currency as it can devalue or inflate the value of its currency.
The IMF seeks to strengthen public financial management to improve the quality of public spending and debt management. The government will do so by implementing a number of measures, including improving reporting of government finance statistics; surveying, auditing, and paying domestic debts; and continue to compile information on government spending. Iraq will also work with the World Bank on designing and implementing an integrated financial management system (IFIMS) to manage spending, payment processing, budgeting, and reporting for the government.
This program will also seek to reduce the dominance of state-owned banks in order to avoid financial sector risks and preserve the sector’s stability. Three of Iraq’s state-owned banks account for 90 percent of the banking system’s assets,which is problematic given their weak financial health. The government will commit to auditing these banks to determine how they will be restructured to improve performance. The Central Bank of Iraq will also implement reform measures to enhance the stability of the banking sector, including strengthening banking supervision, compiling and publishing financial stability indicators, and penalizing banks and non-banks financial institutions for any non-compliance with laws and regulations.
While this program stresses the importance of reducing government debt, it also stresses the protection of social spending which should safeguard the interest of the poor, refugees, and displaced. This will include spending on health, education, assistance subsidies to Syrian refugees and the internally displaced, and the social safety net. The government is expected to commit to maintaining a floor of social spending throughout the duration of the IMF loan.
While this loan comes at a critical time in Iraq’s economic crisis, some Iraqi politicians and economists are voicing fears over Iraq’s decision to take on this debt. They are concerned that the loan could do more harm than good in the long run as it will turn into a set of unrealistic conditions and demands on the Iraqi economy, in addition to spurring more government corruption. In the past, Iraq failed to follow through with reforms required by the IMF including conditions of a 2004 economic reform package requiring privatization of some sectors and raising fuel prices in exchange for reducing and rescheduling $50 billion worth of debt. (oh really? Bet many of you didn’t know about this and the fact that Iraq already failed once to meet a reform package in the past. But in 2004 was Iraq ready to tackle this challenge?)
Iraqi Member of Parliament, Noura al-Bajari, expressed concern over the country’s growing debt in general and its inability to pay them off. Some economists suggest Iraq owes $69 billion in foreign debts, but it is difficult to determine the enormity of Iraq’s debt given the lack of official statistics on the size of the debt. According to Abdul Rahman al-Mashhadani, an Iraqi economics professor, these debts were used mainly for consumption rather than investment, which he says makes it harder to pay them off. (I really like this article since it is telling us so much. It is yet another confirmation that the IMF did use the loan to motivate Iraq to carry through with the needed reforms and this article lists them for us. Do you see all these items they mentioned now being implemented or worked on? Yes they are being worked on and news of these efforts has been in all the articles I have been presenting to you)
So in mid December 2016 the IMF will conduct a “report card” once again for the status of these reforms. Iraq is not going to receive the next installment amount without a good report card. I believe if the report if favorable they will receive the money and this too will be another sign to us they are moving forward to their early 2017 timeframe with the “project to delete the zeros”. If the IMF rejects the payment or delays it further we may have to wait beyond early 2017. Remember I have told you many times there is no guarantee that the project will not be postponed once again beyond early 2017. But so far the news is pouring out of Iraq telling us it will not. So we are hopeful and anticipate it.
Huge News - Allawi suggested hiring Shabibi and experts to solve economic problems
Suggested head of the National Coalition , Iyad Allawi, on Friday, the Iraqi government restore the former Iraqi Central Bank Governor Sinan al - Shabibi, and the use of a panel of financial experts, and the formation of an economic body to save Iraq from its economic crisis. (Mmm very interesting! Okay…but wait just one second! We know the National Coalition (or National Alliance) is now headed by Ammar al-Hakim and not Allawi. So why in this article are they talking like Allawi still heads the coalition. Am I missing something? I presented an article to you about this change over about month ago. What I think is happening here is intentional hype specific to the dinar investment community. This is an old recycled article and all they did is change the date but forgot to change the leader of the coalition’s name and other changes in the govt too….gotta again. So who is doing this intentional misleading articles? As we also know Zebari is no longer the finance minister. So in brief this news is NOT knew news. Getting Dr Shabibi back to head the CBI is a very good thing but I do not think this is going to happen prior to our RV. Just my opinion)
Allawi called in a press statement vassal / balances News / government to "restore with the help of experts , economic and financial, and the formation of a body to save the Iraqi economy, guiding compass government , which suffered from the bankruptcy in order to get out of the financial crisis, as Iraq intends to establish free zones in four provinces, with the launch of Central Bank $ 6 trillion Iraqi dinars for agricultural, industrial, real estate and banks granted to the citizens. "
Iyad Allawi said, " The Iraqi government in the event of bankruptcy, and it must be geared to get loans, has tried it, and Finance Minister Hoshyar Zebari discussed successfully secured loans from the World Bank up to one billion and 200 million dollars, and there are going to get two billion dollars attempts."
The Iraqi parliament speaker Salim al - Jubouri, called yesterday, the World Bank to support Iraq economically out of the financial crisis.
And it formed the Ministry of Finance of a specialized committee to raise the state 's non - oil revenues to cope with the financial crisis, which hit the country, after a drop in oil prices in global markets.
Their words not mine…..No Rumors, No Hype, Just the FACTS!
Much love to ya all,
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Saturday, November 19, 2016
Mountain Goat News Brief
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