CBI ANNOUNCES RAISING THE VALUE OF THE DINAR
Good to see a new RV Article!! It's been awhile - not since ISIS, has the CBI made any serious announcement of raising the value of the Dinar.
The IMF's two LOIs, both last December and June, mapped out steps for the CBI and the Minister of Finance to take in order to receive the loans.
In the December LOI, the IMF projected that Iraq would join the international world "by mid-year." That was curious because the plan to rid Iraq of ISIS was also being formulated on a timeline with Mosul scheduled for liberation Oct-Winter.
IMO, this was an attempt to correct the mistake the Obama Administration made by retreating from Iraq prior to the RV and the reconstruction/post-war phase of the Standby Agreement taking effect.
This led to Maliki and Co.having a field day with stealing Iraq's oil sales and the CBI auctions blind, not rebuilding Iraq's infrastructure, providing jobs, electricity, small business loans,etc., and then letting ISIS in. Without the RV, Iraq has no international currency, which hampers reconstruction thereby creating an atmosphere of unemployed, disenfranchised Sunnis that can become attracted to terrorism.
The plan to get rid of ISIS has to include the Monetary Reform in order to finally win the peace. The world is not safe if the ME isn't stable. We can't afford the terrorism and the Muslim migration.
Perhaps the IMF's plan was to RV, but the GOI disruption railroad it. Maybe the IMF's plan was just get Iraq ready to RV by mid-year when most of ISIS outside of Mosul was under control at this point, it seems like they have to wait to gain control over the Mosul.
In any event, prior to the RV, we can expect to see some "peppering" of articles going over the plan to delete the zeroes and raise the value. In the past when Shabibi prepared to RV, he did work the press to educate the people on his plan. It's good to see a new article begin the process once again. In this article, it's stating that the RV would happen once Mosul was freed from ISIS.
I've always been of the opinion that the IMF prefers to RV on a Thursday in the Spring, so I'm again looking at the last Thursday in March, March 30 - April 27, 2017, which is after Mosul would be liberated.
Liberating Mosul includes a very complex political agreement with the Kurds and most likely, needs to include the HCL law being passed. I was very encouraged when in August an Article 140 territory dispute had a negotiated agreement to split the oil fields. I believe an agreement for Mosul's oil has also been reached but not announced.
There's still a lot to get done politically.
Abadi has to get his technocrat Ministers appointed. This was scheduled to be done last Spring.
The GOI still hasn't passed important laws. For example, the IMF's June LOI stated that "as a first step, the GOI will pass the Investment Law." I never saw an article on that.
The LOI also states that CBI needs to cut out the use of multiple currencies (USD) by "the end of the year." The Kurds have to actually vote in the HCL.
Mosul has to be politically stable post ISIS. Looking at what still needs to get done, Spring 2017 seems realistic, and between now and the RV, we should expect more RV articles appearing.
Please enjoy this one:
Coinciding with the victories of our security forces in Mosul, Central ..alpennek raise the price of the dinar against the dollar
2016-10 – 23
A source in the central bank said yesterday that the recent lifting of the price of the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar to coincide with the victories of our security forces and is moving towards liberalization City Almousel.oukal source in a press statement singled out by all the news that the central bank decided to raise the value of the Iraqi dinar against the US dollar by financial mechanisms fall in its policies for indicating that these mechanisms are subject to the principle of supply and demand in the domestic market. The source, who preferred not to be named, said the Iraqi dinar will see over the next few days, a significant rise in price against the US dollar.
THE IMF HISTORICALLY HAS RV'd IN APRIL
I had very good Intel years ago that Shabibi tried to start the RV process at 10 cents March 30th, the year that he did the 4 point pip movement in January.
I had good Intel that the IMF prefers Thursday mid-month or end of month.
IMF's fiscal year starts April 1.
No plan prior to December 2015:
Prior to December 2015, and post-Shabibi's removal, the invasion of ISIS, and pre-Abadi, the IMF, Pentagon, WM and UST had no plan for Iraq. Obama has a pattern of no plan, other than increase debt, destabilize the ME, and spread Muslims around the world, IMO. Last December the plan shifted to getting rid of ISIS, stabilizing Iraq in order for the reconstruction phase of the SBA to finally start. That plan included security, political stability, agreements with the Kurds, loans, bonds, credit rating, Budgets, and the RV/financial reform including the needed laws.
I'm not the only one that had Intel last April the RV was going through. But, the chaos in the GOI happened. Abadi still doesn't have his technocrat government, this, IMO, has to be considered as a delay.
IMF, RVs of other countries, and international banking platform expert, stated that an RV would not happen between mid-December and mid-January due to end of the year banking accounting. Looking at the other three quarters makes logical sense for accounting purposes.
IMO, the CBI can RV with the BIS and IMF's approval at any date and rate. This is just my own logical thinking.
ALL OF THIS IS JUST LOGICAL THINKING, not based on intel, rumor, nor articles stating that the RV will happen in April 2017.