Some very interesting news to share with everyone today. Hope you are ready.
Eid is now over and parliament sessions returned on Thursday 9/15.
Two major items we waited for was 1) the outcome of Zabari’s (finance minister) parliamentary vote on confidence and 2) the vote on the oil and gas law (HCL).
So what happened on these two issues?
First let me say that many argued and argued with me that HCL was all done, done, done and it did not need any law to be passed by parliament. Really?
I argued back they were wrong, wrong, and wrong again since I know better since I am talking to some really high up officials in the Iraqi government, the IMF and in the USA who are telling exactly what is needed and at what level of performance they expect from Iraq.
Read my lips again – They need an oil and gas law (HCL) passed in parliament before any turn-on of their currency to international markets. They even told us in a recent article this week that any significant increase it the value of he dinar is dependent on needed legislation.
I quote from the article below – “the legislative track and other issues also have an impact on the exchange rate”.
If you still don’t believe me then why did Iraq give us this recent article about the oil and gas law? See article below. What is it telling us? Can you read?
There is much more behind this article then what is on the surface.
So first of all this article confirms that an oil and gas law is required.
Next let’s review the recent agreement between Erbil and the Baghdad government. What was it really all about? It was about the oil in Kirkuk and how it will be managed. As I said many times the contention here is that Kurdistan was having problems paying their Pershmerga army and resupplying it. They are taking on the brunt of the fighting against ISIS and DAASH. So where is all the financial support from the other half of the government?
Remember Kurdistan also still has to pay the usual salaries to run the KRG region and government (this alone compromised the 17%). So where will the extra money come from? I have said in my past news letter that Kirkuk oil sales was a way for the KRG to pay for the ISIS war.
Next I want to point out something to everyone. In a very recent article the CBI has come out and told us they are NOT planning to launch the 100,000 dinar note anytime soon. This article was to clarify what the news media has said and was against what the CBI was actually doing. This was not good news to us.
Then in the same article the CBI said that there would be not significant increase in the rate of the dinar any time soon due to the low CBI reserves of hard currency. So now we know that any RV is IN FACT dependent on the amount of hard currency in USD sitting in the Central Bank of Iraq. No Rumors, No Hypes, Just the FACTS. This is not good news to us.
So let’s put on our thinking caps and remember back to 2012 when the then head of the CBI Dr Shababi was going to RV the currency. We know this is FACTUAL since he told us in an article last year that Iraq missed an opportunity since the IMF gave them permission to RV at that time. He also said that he has the reserves at over 80 billlion. So we must go by what we now know. We now know the CBI reserves is somewhere around $52 billion since Maliki and his goons raided the coffers along with the currency auctions to sustain the economy since Maliki left only 500 million in the treasury when he parted from office and Abadi took over. So the good news, if any, is that we now know 3 things are now FACTUAL and see these FACTS in writing from the CBI:
· Iraq does need the IMF’s permission to RV
· Iraq CBI needs to increase their reserve of hard currency now sitting in the CBI. It now is almost cut in half from what it was in 2012.
· the legislative track and other issues also have an impact on the exchange rate (so it appears Iraq does need some mandated laws,,,sorry all your so called “intel gurus” you were wrong again,,,)
So with lessons learned this bad news is turned into good news. Remember the glass can be half empty or half full. It is your choice how you accept reality.
Here is some good news since we need it desperately.
There is an effort now under way to recover nearly 60 billion that has been stolen from the CBI reserves and from the treasury on falsified contracts and other corruptive measures. The CBi reserves could literally climb over night to 2012 levels very quickly and as it could be months and not years and this would bring us to early 2017.
Always remember when the CBI did not say there would not be a significant rise in the value of the Iraq dinar any time soon. It did say that the CBI has no plans (like current plans) to raise the value of the dinar against the dollar. However is 2-3 months from today current?
You see you have to read through the entire article and not just stop at one sentence and get disappointed and walk away. This article was mostly about debunking the issuance of the 100,000 notes as the news media was not accurate. The part about not printed the notes is not accurate however as we know the CBI did tell us already they have a contractor in Germany and the notes were being printed. So they can’t take this one back….lol…lol…
Anyway and we know they will not issue this 100,000 note until after the RV occurs and it is never going to be used on the streets of Iraq as it is intended for inter-banking transactions only. This we know as factual. So it could be many months or even years before we see this note. But I don’t think longer than months since common sense tells us they were in a budget crunch and so why spend so much money and tie up so much money getting this new note designed and printed now if they did not intend to launch it soon. It just does not make any sense. Get it?
See my comments in italic between the article below to try to explain even better what is going on.
Differences Exclude passing the energy oil and gas law during the current parliamentary stage
14 September 2016
Information / special ..
Ruled out of the oil and energy parliamentary, Wednesday, passing the oil and gas law during the current stage, he attributed the reason for the existence of "obstacles" between the governments in Baghdad and Erbil.
A member of the committee MP Hussein Awad told / information /, "The oil and gas law faces obstacles between the province and the center and difficult to pass during the current parliamentary session," adding that "the law is still in Parliament inclusion because of those differences and not for another reason."
Awad added that "the law emphasizes the organization and finance imports of oil and the delivery of all exaggeration to the federal government," pointing out that "the law will not see the light at the present time."
It is said that during the talks last week between a delegation led by President of the Kurdistan Regional Government, Nechirvan Barzani, and between the federal government, led to an agreement on Kirkuk's oil, while not resolving the issue of the region's oil.
Source for "tomorrow Press": the Central bank will not be printed 100 thousand dinars category at the moment
Denied an informed source at the Central Bank of Iraq, on Wednesday, to be "central" had started printing 100 thousand dinars a class at the present time, stressing that it seeks to maintain the "value" of the Iraqi dinar.
The source said in a statement to "tomorrow's Press," that "the central bank has no intention at present currency printed from 100 dinars a class, it recently printed a new currency of 50 thousand dinars category, and had its causes and made good financial services to the citizen and the market." The source added that "the central bank is working today to preserve the value of the Iraqi dinar and stability." And circulated among the news media that the determination of the central bank issued a new edition of 100 thousand dinars category to the market.
It was among the financial and economic central bank warned of a new edition of 100 thousand dinars a class and put on the market, because it will increase the prices of goods and driving up inflation as well as it will reduce the value of the Iraqi dinar and eliminate small denominations of currency, which will affect and directly to citizens.
So now here is the article from weeks ago. So what is going on? My opinion is the news media was hasty in their report on this news and jumped the gun. So now the CBI must come out and clarify what their plan really is.
Experts: Ask a coin 100,000 dinars will increase prices and raise inflation
BAGHDAD / JD / .. warned a number of experts and specialists in the financial and economic affairs, the central bank from issuing a new edition category 100 000 dinars, and put on the market, because it will increase the prices of goods and driving up inflation as well as it would reduce the value of the Iraqi dinar and eliminate small groups of currency and thus will affect directly the citizens.
He revealed an official source at the central bank preferred to remain anonymous, the central bank's intention to issue a new edition of 100,000 dinars category to the market.
The source told / KD / "The category of 100,000 dinars printed and is designed such a model, and we will choose the right time to put on the market," noting that "put on the market will help to stimulate the economy through the operations of exchanges between traders and commercial transactions between the operating companies," as well as category of the 100 000 easy storage and load and is designed along the lines of the international currency system if the high level of security, it is difficult to falsify. "
He noted that "put on the market requires, inter alia, promotional media campaign to get to know them, and being equal to or close to the category of 100 US dollars."
For his part, economist Adel Mandalawi warned of putting large groups of currencies in the market because it will affect the citizens and indirectly in terms of increasing prices and rising inflation, as well as the collapse of the deliberative value of the national currency.
He told Mandalawi / KD / time that is appropriate to ask edition of 100 dinars fact that the Iraqi economy is going through a volatile and unstable, especially in light of the decrease in oil prices and a lack of revenue.He added that this new category would cancel the deal for small groups and gradually be currency 1,000 dinars smaller class than 250 dinars.
(they are telling us the lower denoms from $1,000 dinars up to $250 dinars will gradually be issued)
Lama, an expert on financial affairs Nabil Mahdi, said that some of the analysts and economists begrudge that sell the dollar at the central bank auction of the same amount and the introduction of a class of 100 000 new dinars to the market without the withdrawal of the equivalent of the dinar will lead to the final collapse, "In my view it no relationship between the central bank auction, which is a fixed nominal price of the dinar against the dollar, and the introduction of 100 000 dinars category collapse of the dinar, but the effect will be to increase the number of times the monetary union trading (dinar) within the economy any increase money circulation in the Iraqi economy speed.
He added that "according to economic theory, the printed large new categories practical means to increase the money supply ratios (liquidity) which have fits directly proportional to the increase in money supply rotational speed (speed of trading) the speed of trading, which is proportional to the accelerating inflation caused by rising prices resulting from increased new demand on the supply of goods and services due to the increase of that cash. "
He continued, "as if the demand for domestic goods increased, the displayed quasi-static at the moment for lack of production of a multitude or, comparable to a foreigner so that local products, especially industrial fill the increasing demand of junk purchased a gap, as well as there are no modern techniques of agricultural production even provides a new view of the agricultural product fills the needs of consumer, leading to increased consumer demand to the direction of foreign product, which means that the dealer to increase the import of foreign products to meet the shortage of supply of goods imported from the front of the new demand resulting from increased liquidity. "
"The increase in Iraqi imports from abroad means more dollar absorption from inside Iraq to the outside, which means to increase the desire of traders and speculators on their access to dollar auctions central bank and increased that desire means to raise the price the dollar within those auctions Batalli to increase the proportion of low value of the Iraqi dinar against other currencies, including the dollar, which increases the desire of speculators at this time to get a dollar, even at a higher price than the previous price within Iraq to the expectation of the low value of the dinar at a higher rate from the current time and the high value of the dollar. "
This brings together experts and analysts that the time is appropriate to put up with large groups of currencies, given the state of the Iraqi market instability. The central bank has issued a new edition last year, the category of 50,000 dinars to the local market with announced his intention to print a new currency Other category 100, 000
Parliamentary Finance calls to control the rate of the dinar against the dollar
Parliamentary Finance Committee called on Thursday for control of the Iraqi dinar exchange rate against the dollar, by maintaining a reserve of hard currency.
The committee member said Sarhan Ahmed told all of Iraq [where] that " the central bank has no plans to raise the value of the dinar against the dollar , " pointing out that " the rise of the dinar rate depends on the central bank 's reserves of hard currency and the non - oil and oil revenues coming into the country . "
He pointed out that " the legislative track and other issues have an impact on the exchange rate, which calls for preservation of the Iraqi dinar exchange rate and maintain a reserve of hard currency." Witnessing the Iraqi dinar exchange rate volatility apparent in the market where he will witness the dollar rise gradually in front of the dinar exchange.
He criticized a number of financial and political economists pursued by the Central Bank of Iraq and falling cash reserves during the recent years.
Till next time…. Auf Wiedersehen!
Peace and Luv To Ya All,