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Featured Post

RV Intel/Thoughts/News - All Posts for December 5, 2016

Below is a list of all of the content posted for Monday, December 5, 2016. This will be useful for those of you who may have missed somethin...

Sunday, September 11, 2016

Dinar Updates Daily Chat Log for Sunday 9/11/16 - Part 4

Dinar Updates Daily Chat Log

Part 4 - Featuring BGG & rcookie

Romello says to DIGIman1(2:52 PM):

:D

Romello says to DIGIman1(2:52 PM):

We'll take a big L this time

DIGIman1 says to Romello(2:52 PM):

i just figured out its football yer talking about :D

Romello says to DIGIman1(2:53 PM):

Umm yeah. lolol

DIGIman1 says to Romello(2:53 PM):

i'm pretty sports-illiterate..... lol

Romello says to DIGIman1(2:55 PM):

No problem. All good(y)

magnetlady says(3:14 PM):

Hey DIGI, Romello

DIGIman1 says to magnetlady(3:15 PM):

hey mags.... :)

DIGIman1 says to magnetlady(3:15 PM):

ready for a break?

magnetlady says(3:15 PM):

subby has it srry forgot to take off copy

subgirl says to magnetlady(3:16 PM):

how was church?

(3:16 PM)*.MOD.magnetlady.copy changed nickname to *.MOD.magnetlady!

DIGIman1 says to subgirl(3:16 PM):

oops......oh suuuuuuuuuuuby........whenever yer ready.........um.......

subgirl says to magnetlady(3:16 PM):

Don’t MISS – “DU NEWS TIME” w/BGG and in the DU CHAT ROOM – Sunday 7:30pm EST

subgirl says to DIGIman1(3:17 PM):

ok you can have it... :) let me copy again ok?

DIGIman1 says to subgirl(3:17 PM):

k :)

magnetlady says(3:19 PM):

Church was great subby. Very somber rememberence

subgirl says to magnetlady(3:19 PM):

oh cool! :) glad it was... We all need to remember the men and women who died on 9/11

(3:20 PM).MOD.subgirlcopy changed nickname to .MOD.subgirl!

subgirl says to magnetlady(3:20 PM):

thanks mags and digi for copying today!!!

DIGIman1 says to subgirl(3:20 PM):

:) (y)

magnetlady says(3:21 PM):

we are very close to one of the targets

subgirl says to magnetlady(3:21 PM):

:)

subgirl says to magnetlady(3:21 PM):

WOW are you really?

subgirl says to DIGIman1(3:21 PM):

:) (y)

magnetlady says(3:22 PM):

15 years ago today I started off to work and drove by the Pentagon like I do every day about 10 minutes prior to the plane hitting straight on to the Pentagon. I drove on to work and when I got there everyone was outside.

subgirl says to DIGIman1(3:23 PM):

we are having a Good news in the park tonight at church. So we are having food and a church service in the park! How fun.

subgirl says to DIGIman1(3:23 PM):

and it is 75 degrees outside and sunny

subgirl says to magnetlady(3:24 PM):

WOW mags! bet that scared you?

magnetlady says(3:24 PM):

I started gathering up people once I figured out what was wrong and we started home, It took us 8 hours to get out of DC and down to Fredericksburg. Dropped people off all along the way that lived between DC and there and then saw my son and drove back home

magnetlady says(3:25 PM):

Not until I realized what happened. I didn't know anything was wrong until I got to work.

subgirl says to magnetlady(3:25 PM):

WOW you were very close to the Pentagon...

loop says(3:25 PM):

Parliament received 12 applications from the judiciary to lift the immunity of MPs

Political Since 11/09/2016 16:06 pm (Baghdad time)

BAGHDAD - balances News

Commission announced the lifting of immunity in the Iraqi parliament on Sunday, the existence of 12 applications submitted by the judiciary, to lift the immunity of MPs, noting that it will submit a report to the Presidency, the names of deputies are supposed to lift their immunity.

The head of the committee, Abdul Rahman Alloizi, in a statement, received / balances News / copy of it, "eliminating presented requests to the council to lift the immunity of 12 deputies accused of various crimes," noting that "the Constitution referred to the possibility of lifting the immunity of MP if committed a felony, and some lifting of immunity received from the elimination of related offenses and irregularities requests. "

He Alloizi, that "the Commission will submit its report to the presidency of the parliament, after the Eid al-Adha holiday on the House of Representatives is supposed to lift their immunity according to the Constitution, to put the subject of lifting the immunity of MP, who said the report would respond within a week of submission of the report."

The head of the House of Representatives, Saleem al-Jubouri form, earlier, a mini-committee to examine the files submitted by the Iraqi judiciary on the lifting of the immunity of the House of Representatives for their appearance Omamh.anthy 29/33 h

magnetlady says(3:25 PM):

Yes very close drive by it about 50 feet from where the plane went into it

BGG says to loop(3:25 PM):

Thanks for bringing the News Loopster.

subgirl says to magnetlady(3:26 PM):

I bet there was a lot of panic and yelling too.

magnetlady says(3:26 PM):

perhaps 50-100 feet from the road

loop says to BGG(3:26 PM):

YVW

subgirl says to loop(3:26 PM):

Good afternoon LOOP :)

magnetlady says(3:26 PM):

REally people were very calm. But the roads were gridlogged. That's why it took so long to get out of town. We just sat in my car

magnetlady says(3:27 PM):

AFTERNOON BGG and LOP

magnetlady says(3:27 PM):

LOOP

magnetlady says(3:27 PM):

oops

subgirl says to magnetlady(3:27 PM):

that is pretty wild!

loop says to magnetlady(3:27 PM):

Hi Mags

magnetlady says(3:27 PM):

DC is a disaster trying to get out of when there is a probelm

subgirl says to magnetlady(3:27 PM):

I bet it is...

magnetlady says(3:27 PM):

Hey loop sorry about the LOP up there.

loop says to magnetlady(3:27 PM):

DOn't mention Lop around here

magnetlady says(3:28 PM):

sorry

loop says to magnetlady(3:28 PM):

(lol)

subgirl says to loop(3:28 PM):

lol :D(lol):D

subgirl says to DIGIman1(3:29 PM):

bbiab have to go out and come back in...

(3:39 PM)plowboy changed nickname to deplorable plowboy!

plowboy says to magnetlady(3:40 PM):

hey, magnetlady, how's it going?

DIGIman1 says to plowboy(3:43 PM):

hey plow......no straight rows today or what?

magnetlady says(3:46 PM):

Going OK plow

plowboy says to DIGIman1(3:48 PM):

no, 's my day off

plowboy says to DIGIman1(3:52 PM):

speaking of crooked rows, did you see this SC high school football sideline markers? http://wspa.com/2016/09/02/sideline-...co-goes-viral/

DIGIman1 says to plowboy(3:58 PM):

looks like a prime example of texting and driving....

plowboy says to DIGIman1(3:59 PM):

did you hear H fainted today?

magnetlady says(3:59 PM):

Saw the picture

DIGIman1 says to plowboy(3:59 PM):

saw it on video

magnetlady says(3:59 PM):

She fell beneath the car she was trying to get into

plowboy says to DIGIman1(3:59 PM):

she said she was overheated but it was only 80 degrees

magnetlady says(4:00 PM):

Went to her daughters for a little bit and then walked out like nothing had ever happened.

magnetlady says(4:00 PM):

said she was leaving to go on to her home in upper ny

plowboy says(4:01 PM):

its time for her to release her medical records

DIGIman1 says(4:06 PM):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ybsEhlT2DA - this is kinda interesting for those that want the history of arab oil....

jtank says(4:09 PM):

everyone says shabibi is too old- he is not fainting--lol

snowhite says(4:11 PM):

Is there newstime and an after call tonight?

DIGIman1 says(4:12 PM):

Don’t MISS – “DU NEWS TIME” w/BGG and in the DU CHAT ROOM – Sunday 7:30pm EST

DIGIman1 says to snowhite(4:12 PM):

(y)

snowhite says to DIGIman1(4:13 PM):

Thank you! :)

rcookie says(4:17 PM):

11 strike Iraqi Airways in Anbar and killed hundreds of leaders and members of al «State» in Mosul

Sep 12, 2016

Baghdad «Quds Al-Arabi» witnessed the last hours of a special Iraqi Airways and International against al «State» locations in active operations breakers, also it signed bombings in the Iraqi capital.

In Sector Anbar, directed Iraqi aircraft, on Sunday 11 strike in which more than 100 killed and a leading element of the organization «state».

Iraq's Interior Ministry said that «after the intensification of the intelligence effort field in cities where there is regulation and identify strategic targets affecting areas of western Iraq in (based, Akashat, pubic, Rawah, a steamroller wet) and after the completion of the study objectives and analysis is was issued implementation has been assigned Hawks force Iraqi air the implementation of duty who lead aircraft F-16, where they directed 11 air strike against the top leadership positions of the leaders of state regulation and the content of the tools the killing of innocent people from suicide vests, ammunition, weapons and explosive devices and additive bombers and Alangmasien «more regulation fighters cruelty. these strikes resulted in more than a hundred terrorist was killed.

The Joint Special Operations Command announced the killing Airways International Alliance of Sunday Daesh a number of elements in al-Baghdadi, an island west of Ramadi.

In Sector Nineveh in northern Iraq, the leadership of editor of Nineveh announced, on Sunday, in a statement, said that «flight international coalition against an air strike targeted sites for the organization (state) in Mosul, damaging a wheel loaded with weapons and ammunition in the upper Seaoanah village of hand Qayyarah, south of Mosul », referring to« destroy a rocket launcher in the village of Khare hand Qayyarah also ».

The statement added that »shelling also resulted in the destruction of a mortar detachment to regulate (state) in the village of Alahud hand Qayyarah south of Mosul». Add to destroy the mortar detachment and rocket launcher to organize, pounding Airline Alliance International, a subsidiary of the Kierh villages, south of Mosul.

A command of operations in another statement, said that «the international coalition carried out, on Sunday, targeting a laboratory for booby-trapping the wheels in the conscious village of hand] advice south of Mosul, resulting in an air strike destroyed».

The statement added that «coalition aircraft also targeted a bomb south of the wheel] advice which led to the complete destruction».

In Baghdad, it has signed a new series of bombings, improvised explosive devices and suicide bombers against civilian targets.

Bombing has occurred near a market for the sale of sheep while people rush to buy them on the occasion of Eid al-Adha in the cities south of Baghdad, killing two people and wounding five others.

The targeting of an explosive device, patrol rally popular in the Abu Ghraib area west of Baghdad, killing one of the rotating members and injuring four others.

The Baghdad Operations Command announced enables joint force of the Presidential Office and the Second Brigade combat criminality session, and after intelligence information, from the Edit hijacked and arrested one of the kidnappers, within the course area / neighborhood mechanics.

plowboy says(4:17 PM):

thanks, digi but I'll have to watch it later, my wife is too great a Cowboys fan for me to watch it now.

plowboy says(4:18 PM):

I just recently learned that Russia gave the US a 911 memorial. It is shaped like a teardrop and located near the statue of liberty. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=88sz4SPVefQ

DIGIman1 says(4:20 PM):

rolled up into a little ball and tossed into the soup...

(4:30 PM)woodywoodpecker was kicked out by woodywoodpecker!

(4:31 PM)cowboywads was kicked out by cowboywads!

rcookie says(4:33 PM):

GOING TO BRING IN SOME THINGS FROM THE IMF LOI/MEFP/TMU......THAT LEND SOME INSIGHT AS TO THE CONFIDENCE FROM THE IMF TOWARD IRAQ AND ITS ADDRESSMENT OF FISCAL DISCIPLINE INITIATIVES THEY HAVE TRANSPARENTLY LAYED OUT TO THEM.....

DIGIman1 says to rcookie(4:34 PM):

(y)

rcookie says(4:35 PM):

1ST TO ADDRESS THE SKY IS FALLING COMMMENTS CONCERNING IRAQS RESERVE STATUS...FOR ANYONE NOT WANTING TO READ THE ACTUAL FORCASTED CBI BALANCE SHEET WHICH SHOWS EXACTLY WHERE THEY ARE PROGRAMMED TO BE THROUGH 2021...

willie60 says to rcookie(4:35 PM):

Thank you. We all appreciate you so much.

rcookie says(4:35 PM):

BUT A GENERAL STATEMENT...

rcookie says(4:36 PM):

While Iraq will have to use its reserve buffers to smooth adjustment to the shock, foreign exchange reserves are expected to remain broadly adequate over the forecast horizon provided the envisaged fiscal adjustment takes place, the external financial support materializes, and oil price and production assumptions hold (Table 13).

rcookie says(4:36 PM):

YEP SOUNDS THEY HAVE HIT THE PANIC BUTTON....AND ARE AT DEFCON 1.......LOL

rcookie says(4:38 PM):

HARDLY....ONCE AGAIN....AS CLEARLY OUTLINED IN THE LOI....THEY ARE AS PROGRAMMED ...AND AFTER REPORT FROM TODAY...AFTER IMF AUDIT HAVE $10 BILLION MORE IN RESERVES THAN WERE PROGRAMMED FOR...

rcookie says(4:38 PM):

14. The outlook is subject to both downside and upside risks. On the one hand, an escalation of the conflict with ISIS and/or worsening of the security situation in the south of the country could weaken growth, public finances and the balance of payments. A further decline in oil prices or a shortfall in projected financing or in oil production would necessitate larger indirect monetary financing and faster drawdown of official foreign exchange reserves. On the other hand, any increase in oil prices by $1 would increase annual oil revenue by $1.3 billion (Text Table 1). The program design is such that the additional revenue flowing from higher than programmed oil prices would be saved to reduce reliance on reserve buffers (¶19). This policy response will be revisited in subsequent reviews if oil prices were consistently above the program assumptions.

rcookie says(4:39 PM):

THAT IS THE IMF TALKING HERE....NOT SOMEONE THROWING SPAGHETTI...OR WORSE...

rcookie says(4:39 PM):

AND HARDLY PANICKING...ASSERTING DEVALUATION.....

rcookie says(4:39 PM):

LOL

rcookie says(4:40 PM):

18. In 2016, the government will implement a fiscal program that is significantly more restrictive than the budget approved by parliament but very close in nominal terms to the budget executed in 2015 (MEFP, ¶20; Text Table 2 and Tables 3–6). The 2016 budget was built in October 2015 with an oil price assumption of $45 per barrel. The significantly lower level of oil prices observed since then (¶6) have led the government to revise its oil price assumption for 2016 to $34.5 and reduce its planned expenditure by ID 13 trillion (13 percent in nominal terms). The Council of Ministers’ approval and presentation to parliament of a quarterly budget execution report that presents the projection of revenue and expenditure for the remainder of 2016 reflecting this change, an explanation of variations from the 2016 budget, and the measures to be taken to ensure that the budget execution remains in line with the macroeconomic framework agreed under the SBA is a prior action that was met—PA (MEFP, Table 5). The following measures will be taken:

rcookie says(4:41 PM):

THAT OIL PRICE ASSUMPTION IS NOW REVISED TO $43....

willie60 says to rcookie(4:41 PM):

provided the envisaged fiscal adjustmsent takes place? Would you clarify?

rcookie says(4:43 PM):

ENVISAGED IS CONCEIVED AS POSSIBLE...

willie60 says to rcookie(4:43 PM):

OK understood thanks

rcookie says(4:44 PM):

SO THE FISCAL ADJUSTMENTS THAT THE IMF IS FORCASTING FOR IRAQ THAT ARE PERCIVED AS FEASIBLE...AND EXPECTED..

willie60 says to rcookie(4:44 PM):

OK much clearer now

rcookie says(4:44 PM):

AND THIS IS EXACTLY HOW THEIR DEFICIT WAS TO BE ADDRESSED....

rcookie says(4:46 PM):

NO GUESSING....NO PANIC...NO GIBBERISH HUCKSTER CONSPIRACY SPIN ATTACHED TO SOME MASTERCARD RATE THAT HAS ABSOLUTELY ZERO RELEVANCE OR CONFIRMATION...

rcookie says(4:46 PM):

19. In spite of the fiscal consolidation, the government will still face a large budget deficit in 2016 that will be financed mainly by indirect monetary financing and the associated drawdown in official foreign exchange reserves, as well as loans by the international community (MEFP, ¶21). The 2016 deficit (ID 26 trillion) will be mostly financed by domestic bank financing (ID 16.6 trillion), most of which (ID 12.6 trillion) will be refinanced at the discount window of the CBI because banks’ liquidity is constrained. The deficit will also be financed by the issuance of bonds aimed at the general public including the Iraqi Diaspora (ID 5 trillion). The external financing of the deficit will come from loans by the IMF, the World Bank, G7 countries and the European Union (Text Table 3), a budget support loan by the Japanese International Cooperation Agency (JICA, $200 million), and a Eurobond issuance in the second half of 2016 ($1billion). The external financing will also be covered by project loans from the U.S. government ($2.7 billion), JICA ($323 million), the World Bank ($120 million), Italy ($66 million), and the Islamic Development Bank ($54 million). The domestic financing, 60 percent of which is indirect monetary financing, will lead to a sharp increase of the public debt and contribute to a large foreign exchange reserves drawdown to finance government imports. If oil revenue is higher than programmed, the government commits to save the excess of oil revenue collected over the amount programmed in order to reduce the indirect monetary financing of the budget deficit by the CBI. Similarly, if external financing is higher than programmed, the government commits to save the excess in order to reduce the indirect monetary financing of the deficit (Technical Memorandum of Understanding—TMU, ¶¶15–16).

(4:46 PM)mshale was kicked out by mshale!

plowboy says to rcookie(4:47 PM):

I've heard that some other countries were reporting unexpected increases in their reserves.

rcookie says(4:48 PM):

NOT IN MENA....MOST HAVE GONE THROUGH ROBUST DEPLETIONS...

rcookie says(4:49 PM):

AND REMEMBER THOSE REVENIE & EXPENDITURE REFORMS WE HAVE GONE OVER AND BROKEN DOWN 3 TIMES...

rcookie says(4:49 PM):

REVENUE*

rcookie says(4:49 PM):

21. In 2017–19 and beyond, the government will design and implement deeper grounded revenue and expenditure reforms in order to continue to hold a tight lid on the non-oil primary balance and achieve debt sustainability (MEFP, ¶¶23–24). The government will continue to have the account of the Development Fund for Iraq and Successor Account 300/600 at the CBI audited by an international auditor to check that all oil revenues reach the Treasury and monitor the use of the resources deposited in that account (SB, MEFP, Table 5). The government will conduct diagnostics of the tax and customs codes and tax and customs administrations in order to increase non-oil tax revenue. It will also implement a hiring freeze in sectors other than security, health and education and have the Board of Supreme Audit (BSA) audit the wage and pension recipients’ payrolls (﴾SB, MEFP, Table 5)﴿ to first identify, and then cancel payments to, ghost workers and ghost pensioners. The government will also reform the public pension system, in discussion and coordination with the World Bank, in order to make it more financially sustainable, equitable and efficient. It will reform the electricity sector by gradually increasing prices above cost, improving electricity sales revenue collections and reducing distribution losses, and making the necessary investment to capture the gas currently flared when oil is extracted to use it for electricity production, thus reducing the need to import natural gas. The government will set up a proxy means testing database with the assistance of the World Bank to improve the targeting of the state transfers to poor households. The government plans to reform the 176 state-owned non-financial enterprises, most of which have limited rationale beyond providing public employment, are structurally loss-making, and present a large burden on public finances. As a first step, the government is setting up a database to monitor the fiscal risks of non-financial SOEs, which will be used to design and implement a strategy to restructure them.

rcookie says(4:50 PM):

HMMMM...ANY OF THAT LOOK FAMILIAR FROM THE BREAKDOWN...

rcookie says(4:51 PM):

AND AS FAR AS THE CREDIT AGENCIES OR THE 3 LETTER AGENCIES WORRIED ABOUT IRAQS ABILITY TO PAY BACK THESE LOANS...

rcookie says(4:52 PM):

22. Provided the recommended fiscal adjustment is implemented, public debt is projected to remain sustainable over the medium-run (Annex I). The projected fiscal consolidationand improving medium-term growth prospects would support a reduction of public debt from85 percent of GDP in 2018 to 75 percent of GDP by 2021. However, the implementation of fiscal adjustment plans, the high level of external debt and large gross financing needs pose risks for debt sustainability. The risks are partly mitigated by the fact that the gross financing needs are rollover of short-term debt by state-owned banks, which will be getting credit from the central bank, which limits the risk of non-rollover, and two thirds of external debt consists of legacy arrears still to be restructured on Paris Club terms. Indeed, Iraq’s external debt stock of $67 billion at end-2015 includes $41 billion of unresolved external arrears to non-Paris Club creditors that were accumulated under the pre-2003 Saddam regime. These arrears can be tolerated under the Fund’s policy on Arrears to Official Bilateral Creditors because the aforementioned Paris Club Agreement was found to be adequately representative (i.e., Paris Club creditors provided the majority of the financing contributions required from official bilateral creditors in the context of that agreement) and the authorities have since been making best efforts to conclude agreements with non-Paris Club

rcookie says(4:52 PM):

creditors on Paris Club comparable terms.13 Indeed, negotiations to implement debt relief on the same terms as with the PC creditors, i.e. an 80 percent net present value reduction, are ongoing (MEFP, ¶17). However, even with such a markdown, debt sustainability concerns would remain elevated due to Iraq’s high gross financing needs (﴾29 percent of GDP in 2016)

rcookie says(4:54 PM):

AND THIS IS HOW OFTEN THE IMF IS REVIEWING CBI ASSETS AND BALANCE SHEET

rcookie says(4:54 PM):

The SBA will set: quarterly PCs on the non-oil primary balance, the stock of total public debt,18 the stock of net domestic assets of the CBI, official foreign exchange reserves, the absence of new external arrears and the stock of outstanding arrears to IOCs (MEFP, Table 3); quarterly IT on social spending (a floor) and the stock of outstanding domestic arrears on non-oil investment (a ceiling); and PA and a few SB (MEFP, Table 5)﴿. As in Iraq’s previous SBA, the external auditor of the CBI will audit the stocks of net domestic assets and official foreign exchange reserves within two months after the test dates. An external auditor will also audit the stock of public debt within the same deadline. The IMF Statistics Department has been providing technical assistance to ensure that the authorities report fiscal data in compliance with the IMF Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014.

rcookie says(4:55 PM):

The PCs on the stock of net domestic assets of the CBI and official foreign exchange reserves will have adjusters allowing more/less indirect monetary financing and use of reserves in case foreign financing is lower/higher than programmed, with an asymmetric cap on the additional monetary financing to protect foreign exchange reserves. The PCs could be revised and the fiscal adjustment path changed on the occasion of each review in case the medium term path of oil revenue and/or external financing differs from the one presented in this report. The PC on the non-oil primary balance will have an adjuster that will tighten the target in case the transfers to the KRG (¶5) are less than programmed.

rcookie says(4:56 PM):

AND THEY ADDRESS RISKS......

rcookie says(4:56 PM):

30. The SBA is subject to several significant risks, the materialization of which would magnify the policy challenges. The agreement between the KRG and the Iraqi authorities (¶5) may not resume, possibly causing wider political fragmentation, thereby weakening program implementation prospects. The authorities may face difficulties in reducing the wage bill and stemming the build-up of arrears. The authorities’ track record under the last SBA under more favorable economic, political and security conditions and in the context of prior actions for the recent purchase under the RFI was weak, although the authorities have made progress underthe SMP (¶12). In light of the very difficult security situation in the territories occupied by ISIS, the tensions with the KRG over independent oil sales, and the social tensions in the rest of the country, the authorities may face difficulties in gathering the necessary political support to implement the fiscal consolidation and reforms envisaged under the SBA. In addition to these risks, frequent changes to reported macroeconomic indicators underscore the strains on statistical and economic policy institutions posed by the ongoing conflict and weaknesses in the provision of reliable data for program monitoring. The program will manage these risks by using technical assistance and external auditors for data provision related to three out of six PC (¶29). In spite of these planned measures, however, the reliability of data provision for program monitoring will remain uncertain, especially in the near term. Program engagement with Iraq will clearly remain exposed to such risk going forward.

rcookie says(4:56 PM):

AND IN THE END......

(4:57 PM)JD1 was kicked out by JD1!

31. Iraq’s capacity to repay the Fund should remain adequate. The total outstanding Fund credit would peak at 16 percent of gross official reserves, 11 percent of exports of goods and services, and 7 percent of external public debt (Table 11).

Continue to Part 5
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